Implied Probability Calculator

Convert American odds to implied probability percentage. Understand the true win chance behind any betting line and find value bets.

American Odds

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability is the win percentage that the sportsbook's odds suggest. It tells you how likely the book thinks an outcome is to happen, factoring in their profit margin (vig).

Finding Value: If you believe a team has a 60% chance to win, but the implied probability is only 50%, you've found a value bet. The key to profitable betting is finding spots where your estimated probability exceeds the implied probability.

Quick Reference: Common Odds & Probabilities

-110:52.4%

+100:50.0%

-150:60.0%

+150:40.0%

-200:66.7%

+200:33.3%

Learn More About Finding Value

How to Find +EV Bets: Complete Guide

Use implied probability to identify positive expected value betting opportunities.

Understanding the Vig: Complete Guide

Learn how the vig affects implied probability and how to find low-juice markets.

The Graveyard of Champions: Travers Stakes

See how implied probability consistently overvalues Travers Stakes favorites.

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

How to Use This Calculator

1
Enter Your Odds: Input American odds from any sportsbook (e.g., -110, +150, -200)
2
View Implied Probability: See the win percentage the sportsbook's odds suggest for this outcome
3
Compare to Your Estimate: If your estimated probability is higher, you may have found a value bet

Frequently Asked Questions

What is implied probability in sports betting?

Implied probability is the win percentage suggested by betting odds. It represents what the sportsbook believes is the likelihood of an outcome. For example, -110 odds imply a 52.4% probability. Understanding implied probability helps you identify value bets where your estimated probability exceeds the implied probability.

How do you calculate implied probability from American odds?

For negative odds: Implied Probability = |Odds| / (|Odds| + 100). For positive odds: Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100). Example: -150 odds = 150/(150+100) = 60% implied probability. +200 odds = 100/(200+100) = 33.3% implied probability.

Why do implied probabilities add up to more than 100%?

The total implied probability on a two-way market exceeds 100% because of the vig (vigorish) or juice - the sportsbook's built-in profit margin. Standard -110/-110 odds have a combined implied probability of 104.76%, meaning the sportsbook has a 4.76% edge on this market.

How do I find value bets using implied probability?

A value bet exists when your estimated probability of winning exceeds the implied probability. If you believe a team has a 60% chance to win, but the implied probability from the odds is only 55%, you've found value. Consistently betting +EV spots is the key to long-term profitability.