Soccer xG Calculator
Calculate expected goals from shot data and analyze match xG performance
Total Expected Goals
0.41 xG
from 1 shot
Your Team
Opponent
76%
Penalty
35-45%
1v1 with GK
15-25%
Edge of Box
3-8%
Long Range
8-12%
Header (6-yd)
3-5%
Direct Free Kick
2-4%
From Corner
20-30%
Tap-in/Rebound
Understanding Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical measure that quantifies the quality of scoring chances in soccer. Each shot is assigned a probability based on factors like distance, angle, assist type, and body part used. An xG of 0.3 means the average player would score that chance 30% of the time.
How xG Helps Betting
- Identify overperforming teams: Teams scoring well above their xG often regress
- Find value on totals: High xG teams in low-scoring games suggest future overs
- Assess true quality: xG reveals which teams create better chances regardless of results
- Predict regression: Significant xG vs actual goals gaps tend to normalize over time
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
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