Soccer xG Calculator
Calculate expected goals from shot data and analyze match xG performance
Total Expected Goals
0.41 xG
from 1 shot
Your Team
Opponent
76%
Penalty
35-45%
1v1 with GK
15-25%
Edge of Box
3-8%
Long Range
8-12%
Header (6-yd)
3-5%
Direct Free Kick
2-4%
From Corner
20-30%
Tap-in/Rebound
Understanding Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical measure that quantifies the quality of scoring chances in soccer. Each shot is assigned a probability based on factors like distance, angle, assist type, and body part used. An xG of 0.3 means the average player would score that chance 30% of the time.
How xG Helps Betting
- Identify overperforming teams: Teams scoring well above their xG often regress
- Find value on totals: High xG teams in low-scoring games suggest future overs
- Assess true quality: xG reveals which teams create better chances regardless of results
- Predict regression: Significant xG vs actual goals gaps tend to normalize over time
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Responsible Gambling
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