NFL 4th Down Decision Calculator

Determine the optimal 4th down decision using win probability analysis, EPA, and historical success rates. Compare team aggressiveness and find the play that maximizes your chance of winning.

Game Situation

to go
+ if winning

Team Aggressiveness Index

Aggressiveness Index
1.42x
vs league avg
League Rank
#1
of 32 teams
Go-For-It Rate
26%
of 4th downs
DET goes for it on 4th down more often than the league average. They are one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL.

Historical 4th Down Success Rates

Yards to Go12345678910
Success Rate72%62%54%48%44%40%36%33%30%28%
Model based on NFL play-by-play data. Data provided by nflverse (CC-BY-4.0 license).

NFL 4th Down Decision Calculator: Should You Go For It?

Our free NFL 4th down decision calculator uses win probability analysis and expected points added (EPA) to determine whether you should go for it, punt, or attempt a field goal. Based on historical NFL data from 2009-present, this tool analyzes your specific game situation including field position, yards to go, score differential, and time remaining.

How the 4th Down Calculator Works

The calculator evaluates three options: going for it, punting, or attempting a field goal. For each option, it calculates the expected win probability based on historical success rates and expected points. The recommendation maximizes your chance of winning the game, not just the drive.

Key Factors in 4th Down Decisions

  • Field Position: Going for it is more valuable in opponent territory
  • Yards to Go: 4th and short (1-2 yards) has 62-72% success rate
  • Score Differential: Trailing teams should be more aggressive
  • Time Remaining: Late-game situations often require aggression
  • Expected Points: Punting vs giving up field position on turnover

NFL Team 4th Down Aggressiveness

Teams like the Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, and Los Angeles Rams lead the league in 4th down aggressiveness, going for it at rates 30-45% higher than the league average. Meanwhile, traditionally conservative teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants punt more often than analytics would suggest is optimal.

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

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