Kentucky Derby Betting Guide
The most exciting two minutes in sports. With 20 horses and massive fields, the Derby offers unique betting opportunities. Master exotic wagers and post position analysis for the Run for the Roses.
Kentucky Derby Calculators
Kentucky Derby Post Position Analysis
| Post Position | Win Rate | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 (Inside) | 28% | Save ground but traffic risk |
| 5-10 (Middle) | 47% | Best winning positions |
| 11-14 (Mid-Outside) | 18% | Long run to first turn |
| 15-20 (Far Outside) | 7% | Historically poor |
| Post 5 | 10% | Most Derby wins historically |
| Post 1 | 6% | Inside rail challenges |
Key Handicapping Factors
Trainer Record
Top 5 trainers win 40% of Derbies
Jockey Experience
First-time Derby jockeys struggle
Last Race Finish
Top 3 in prep race = better odds
Distance Capability
Must handle 1.25 miles
Running Style
Closers historically outperform
Speed Figures
Beyer 100+ needed to compete
Kentucky Derby Betting Strategies
Exacta Strategy
- • Box your top 3-4 horses for best value vs. cost balance
- • Use key horse wheels if you're confident in a winner
- • Include at least one longshot (15-1 or higher) for bigger payouts
- • Avoid heavy favorites on top - juice isn't worth it in 20-horse fields
Trifecta Strategy
- • Use part-wheel tickets to manage costs
- • Key 2 horses on top, spread 4-5 for third
- • Always include a closer - they win ~60% of Derbies
- • Boxing 4 horses costs $24, 5 horses costs $60
Superfecta Strategy
- • Focus on hitting the 4th place horse - that's where value hides
- • Use $.10 superfectas to spread tickets wider
- • Key your strongest opinions for 1st/2nd, spread 3rd/4th
- • Include 2-3 double-digit longshots for 3rd/4th positions
Kentucky Derby Betting FAQ
What is the best bet for the Kentucky Derby?
Exacta boxes and trifecta keys offer the best value for Kentucky Derby betting. With 20 horses, the win pool is competitive, but exotic wagers allow you to use your opinions on multiple horses to generate larger payouts. Box your top 3-4 horses in exactas for consistent returns.
Does post position matter in the Kentucky Derby?
Yes, post position significantly impacts Kentucky Derby outcomes. Posts 5-10 have historically produced 47% of winners. The inside posts (1-4) win 28% of the time but face traffic issues, while outside posts (15-20) have won just 7% of Derbies due to the long run to the first turn.
How do I bet a Kentucky Derby superfecta?
Superfectas require picking the exact 1-2-3-4 finish order. Use a key horse strategy: pick 1-2 horses you're confident in for the top positions, then spread your ticket with multiple horses for 3rd and 4th. A 2x4x6x6 superfecta covers 2 horses to win, 4 for 2nd, 6 each for 3rd/4th.
Responsible Gambling
Sports betting should be fun, not a financial burden. Only bet what you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being enjoyable, please seek help.
National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700