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Win Probability Calculator
Convert moneyline odds to win probability, remove the vig for true no-vig odds, and find value bets against your own estimate.
Implied Win Probability
60.0%
Includes the sportsbook's vig
Decimal Odds
1.667
Wins 1 in Every
1.67
At -150 odds, the market implies this outcome wins about 60times out of 100. Add the other side's odds to strip the vig.
Value / Edge Finder
Enter your own estimate of how often this outcome actually wins to see your edge and fair price.
Quick Reference
Understanding Win Probability
Moneyline odds represent the sportsbook's assessment of each outcome's likelihood. Converting odds to probability helps you quickly understand what chance the market gives each side.
For favorites (negative odds like -150), the probability is higher than 50%. For underdogs (positive odds like +150), the probability is lower than 50%. The breakeven point is at +100 or -100, representing 50% probability.
Implied probability includes the sportsbook's vig, so both sides of a market will sum to more than 100%. Entering both sides above removes the vig and reveals the true probability, which is what you should compare against your own estimate to find value.
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
How to Use This Calculator
- 1Enter the odds: Type the American moneyline odds for the side you're evaluating (e.g. -150 or +200).
- 2Add the other side (optional): Enter the opposing side's odds to remove the vig and reveal the true, no-vig win probability for both teams.
- 3Check your edge (optional): Enter your own estimated win percentage to see whether the market price gives you positive expected value.
- 4Read the results: Compare implied probability, no-vig probability, and fair odds to spot value.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is implied win probability?
Implied probability is the chance of an outcome baked into the betting odds. For -150, the implied probability is 150 / (150 + 100) = 60%. It tells you how likely the sportsbook's price suggests the outcome is.
Why do both sides add up to more than 100%?
The extra percentage above 100% is the sportsbook's margin, known as the vig or juice. For example, -110 on both sides implies 52.4% each, totaling 104.8%. That 4.8% is the book's built-in edge. Removing it gives the true no-vig probability.
How do I find the 'true' (no-vig) probability?
Enter both sides of the market. The calculator normalizes the two implied probabilities so they sum to 100%, which removes the vig and produces a fair estimate of each side's true win chance.
How do I know if a bet has value?
Compare your own estimated win probability to the no-vig market probability. If you think a team wins more often than the fair market price implies, the bet has positive expected value (+EV). This calculator shows your edge and the fair odds for your estimate.
Does higher implied probability mean a better bet?
No. A heavy favorite at -500 has an 83% implied probability but pays very little. Value comes from the gap between your estimated probability and the price, not from the probability alone.
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Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits