Mastering Same Game Parlay (SGP) Correlation
Build smarter SGPs by understanding which outcomes are correlated. Learn data-driven strategies for NFL, NBA, and soccer to find value that sportsbooks miss.
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What is SGP Correlation?
Correlation measures how likely two events are to happen together. In sports betting, many outcomes within the same game are connected - if one hits, the other is more (or less) likely to hit too.
Positive Correlation
Events that tend to happen together
- • QB passing yards ↑ = WR receiving yards ↑
- • Team winning = Star player scoring more
- • High game total = More passing yards
Negative Correlation
Events that work against each other
- • Team blowout win = Star pulled early
- • RB1 rushing TDs ↑ = RB2 rushing TDs ↓
- • Low game total = Fewer player props hit
Why This Matters: Sportsbooks price SGP legs as if they're independent, then add massive vig. If you find legs that are MORE correlated than the book assumes, you can have +EV even after the SGP penalty.
The Math Behind SGP Pricing
How Sportsbooks Price SGPs
Step 1: Calculate Independent Probability
Leg 1 (52%) × Leg 2 (50%) × Leg 3 (48%) = 12.48% independent
Step 2: Add SGP Vig (typically 15-30%)
12.48% × 1.20 = 14.98% implied (worse for bettor)
Step 3: Convert to Odds
14.98% implied = +568 SGP odds offered
Where Bettors Find Edge
If your 3 legs are actually 18% likely to hit together (due to positive correlation), but the book priced them at 14.98%, you have a +20% edge. This is why understanding correlation is critical.
Use Our SGP Correlation Calculator
Input your leg types and odds to see the true correlated probability vs what books assume.
Open SGP CalculatorNFL SGP Correlation Strategies
High-Value Positive Correlations
1. QB Passing Yards + WR1 Receiving Yards (Same Team)
Correlation: ~0.65-0.75 - If the QB throws for 300+, his top target is likely to have a big game.
Example: Josh Allen Over 275.5 Pass Yds + Stefon Diggs Over 85.5 Rec Yds
Both hit 73% of the time when Allen throws 280+
2. Game Total Over + Combined Passing Props
Correlation: ~0.55-0.65 - High-scoring games mean more passing for both teams.
Example: Game Over 48.5 + Mahomes Over 285.5 + Burrow Over 275.5
All three correlated through game script
3. Team to Win + Star Player Anytime TD
Correlation: ~0.40-0.50 - Winning teams score more TDs, often through their best players.
Example: 49ers ML + CMC Anytime TD
CMC scores in 68% of 49ers wins vs 41% of losses
4. Team Favored + RB Rushing Attempts Over
Correlation: ~0.45-0.55 - Favorites with leads run the ball to kill clock.
Example: Ravens -7 + Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Carries
Heavy favorites run more in 2nd half with lead
Avoid These NFL Combinations
Spread + Moneyline (Same Team)
~90% correlated - Books block this because it's essentially the same bet
Big Favorite + Star Player Props Over
Negatively correlated - Blowouts mean starters sit in 4th quarter
Two RBs from Same Team Both Scoring TDs
Negatively correlated - Teams rarely give goal-line work to multiple backs
Game Under + Player Props Over
Negatively correlated - Low-scoring games mean fewer stats for everyone
NBA SGP Correlation Strategies
1. Star Player Points + Team Win (Competitive Games)
Correlation: ~0.35-0.45 - Stars score more in wins, but only in competitive games.
Example: Celtics -3.5 + Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points
Works best when spread is under 7 points
2. Game Total Over + Both Stars Points Over
Correlation: ~0.50-0.60 - High-scoring games benefit both teams' top scorers.
Example: Game Over 228.5 + Luka Over 29.5 Pts + SGA Over 28.5 Pts
Both benefit from up-tempo game
3. Underdog + Star Assists Over
Correlation: ~0.30-0.40 - Underdogs need team efforts; stars distribute more.
Example: Pacers +5.5 + Tyrese Haliburton Over 10.5 Assists
Close games = more ball movement, more assists
4. Points + Rebounds for Bigs
Correlation: ~0.40-0.50 - Active bigs in game flow get both.
Example: Giannis Over 28.5 Pts + Over 11.5 Rebs
Both tied to minutes played and game involvement
NBA Blowout Warning
NBA has more blowouts than NFL. Avoid combining big favorites with star overs - if a team is up 25 in the 4th, starters sit. Target spreads under 8 for prop correlations.
Soccer SGP Correlation Strategies
1. Team to Win + Star Anytime Goalscorer
Correlation: ~0.50-0.60 - Goals win games; top scorers score the goals.
Example: Man City Win + Haaland Anytime Goalscorer
Haaland scores in 75%+ of City wins
2. Over 2.5 Goals + Both Teams to Score
Correlation: ~0.65-0.75 - If both teams score, you need at least 2 goals already.
Example: Over 2.5 Goals + BTTS Yes
82% of BTTS games go over 2.5
3. Corners Over + Underdog Double Chance
Correlation: ~0.35-0.45 - Underdogs defending = more corners.
Example: Over 10.5 Corners + Brentford +0.5 vs Arsenal
Arsenal attacking creates corners; Brentford surviving
4. Shots on Target + Anytime Goalscorer
Correlation: ~0.45-0.55 - More shots = more goal opportunities.
Example: Salah 2+ Shots on Target + Salah Anytime Goalscorer
Shot volume drives scoring probability
SGP Correlation Reference Table
| Bet Type 1 | Bet Type 2 | Correlation | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Moneyline (same team) | ~90% | AVOID |
| QB Pass Yds | WR Rec Yds (same team) | 65-75% | +EV |
| Over 2.5 Goals | BTTS Yes | 65-75% | +EV |
| Game Total Over | Pass Props Over | 55-65% | +EV |
| Team Win | Star Points Over | 35-45% | CONTEXT |
| Spread | Total | 10-20% | NEUTRAL |
| Big Favorite | Star Props Over | -20 to -40% | -EV |
| Game Under | Player Props Over | -30 to -50% | -EV |
Why Sportsbooks Limit Certain SGP Combos
When you try to add certain legs to an SGP and get blocked, the book is protecting itself from correlated combinations that would give you an edge.
Commonly Blocked Combinations
- • Spread + Moneyline (same team) - ~90% correlation
- • First Half Spread + Full Game Spread - ~85% correlation
- • Player Points + Player PRA (same player) - overlapping
- • Team Total + Multiple Player Props (same team)
- • ATTS + 2+ TDs (same player) - mathematically connected
The Blocking Strategy Tells You Something
When a book blocks a combo, it's confirming those events are highly correlated. Look for similar correlations they don't block - that's where value lives.
Building a +EV SGP: Step by Step
Start with Game Script Thesis
Example: "This game will be high-scoring and competitive with lots of passing."
Select Correlated Legs
Choose props that all benefit from your thesis: Game Over + QB Pass Yds Over + WR Rec Yds Over
Calculate True Correlated Probability
Use our SGP Calculator to see adjusted probability vs independent.
Compare to Book's Offered Odds
If your correlated probability is higher than what the odds imply (after vig), you have +EV.
Size Appropriately
SGPs are high variance. Even +EV bets lose often. Size at 0.5-1% of bankroll max.
5 SGP Mistakes to Avoid
Adding legs just to boost odds
Each leg must be correlated to your thesis. Random additions kill EV.
Ignoring blowout risk
Big favorites often rest starters. Avoid combining -10 favorites with star props.
Stacking too many player props
More legs = more vig. 2-3 correlated legs is the sweet spot.
Not shopping SGP odds
Different books have different SGP pricing. FanDuel vs DraftKings can vary 20%+.
Chasing losses with bigger SGPs
SGPs are entertainment bets. Keep unit size consistent regardless of recent results.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best same game parlay strategy?
The best SGP strategy is building legs around a game script thesis using positively correlated outcomes. For example, if you expect a shootout, combine game total over with passing props. Use our SGP Calculator to verify the correlation adds value vs what books price.
How much vig do sportsbooks charge on SGPs?
SGPs typically carry 15-30% vig, compared to ~4.5% on standard -110 bets. This is why finding correlated edges is essential - you need positive correlation to overcome the extra juice.
Can you consistently profit from SGPs?
Long-term SGP profitability is difficult due to high vig. However, bettors who understand correlation and find combinations where books underprice the relationship can find +EV spots. Track your CLV on SGPs to measure true edge.
Why does FanDuel block certain SGP combinations?
Books block highly correlated combos (like spread + moneyline) because pricing them independently would give bettors a massive edge. When you see a blocked combo, it confirms those events are strongly correlated.
Is it better to do 2-leg or 4-leg SGPs?
Generally, fewer legs = less vig. A 2-leg SGP with strong correlation often provides better EV than a 4-leg with weaker connections. Each additional leg adds more vig and variance.
Ready to Build Smarter SGPs?
Use our correlation tools to analyze your SGP combinations and find true value.
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