How to Find Positive EV Bets
Expected value is the single most important concept in sports betting. If you want to transition from a casual bettor to a profitable one, you need to understand how to find and exploit +EV opportunities. This guide will teach you exactly how.
In This Guide
1. What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same bet thousands of times. It's the mathematical foundation of all profitable gambling.
The Core Principle
- +EVPositive expected value means you profit in the long run. Every +EV bet adds to your expected bankroll.
- -EVNegative expected value means you lose in the long run. The house edge on most bets is -EV for the bettor.
"Professional bettors don't care about winning individual bets. They care about finding +EV and letting the math work over thousands of wagers."
Here's the key insight: You can win 60% of your bets and still lose money if you're betting bad odds. Conversely, you can win only 45% and still profit if you're getting +EV on every bet. The odds matter as much as the outcome.
2. EV vs. Probability: Understanding the Difference
Many bettors confuse probability with expected value. They're related but not the same. Understanding the difference is crucial.
| Concept | Definition | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Probability | How likely an event is to occur (0-100%) | Team has 55% chance to win |
| Implied Probability | The probability implied by the betting odds | -130 odds = 56.5% implied |
| Edge | Your probability minus implied probability | 55% - 52.4% = 2.6% edge |
| Expected Value | Your average profit/loss per bet (in $) | +$2.86 on a $100 bet |
The Key Insight
A bet is +EV when your estimated probability exceeds the implied probability from the odds. The size of this gap determines how much edge you have. Even a small edge (1-2%) is valuable if you can bet at high volume.
3. The EV Formula Explained
The expected value formula looks intimidating but is actually straightforward once you break it down.
Expected Value Formula
EV = (P × W) - ((1 - P) × S)Step-by-Step Example
Let's say you estimate the Chiefs have a 58% chance to beat the Chargers, and you can bet them at -105 odds.
Result: This bet has an expected value of +$13.24 per $100 wagered, or +13.24% EV. This is an excellent opportunity. Our EV Calculator does this math instantly.
4. Four Methods for Finding +EV Bets
There's no single "right" way to find +EV. Professional bettors use multiple methods, often in combination.
Method 1: Sharp Book Comparison
Compare odds from "sharp" books (like Pinnacle, Circa, Bookmaker) against "soft" books (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.). If a soft book offers better odds than the sharp book's no-vig line, you likely have +EV.
Best for: Main markets (spreads, totals, moneylines)
Method 2: Build Your Own Model
Create statistical models that estimate probabilities based on data. Compare your model's output to the market odds. This requires work but gives you an independent edge the market may not have priced in.
Best for: Props, derivatives, smaller markets
Method 3: Line Movement & Steam
Track when sharp money moves lines. If you can bet before the line adjusts, you're essentially getting the same odds the sharps got. Services like BetCris alerts or Action Network help track this.
Best for: Real-time opportunities, requires speed
Method 4: Market Outliers
When one book's odds significantly differ from the market consensus, there may be +EV. This could be due to a pricing error, different information, or simply a slow update.
Best for: Props, live betting, derivative markets
6. Building Your Own Models
Sharp book comparison works for main markets, but for props and derivatives, you often need your own model. Here's how to approach it:
Basic Model Framework
1. Gather Data
Historical stats, player performance, matchup data, situational factors (rest, home/away, weather)
2. Build a Projection
Use regression, averages, or machine learning to estimate outcomes (points, yards, goals, etc.)
3. Convert to Probability
Use distributions (Poisson, normal) to convert projections into over/under probabilities
4. Compare to Market
When your probability exceeds implied odds probability, you have potential +EV
7. Practical Examples
Example 1: Sharp Book Method
Scenario: Bills at Patriots, spread betting
- • Pinnacle has Bills -3 at -104/-104 (no vig = 50% each side)
- • FanDuel has Bills -3 at -102
- • Implied prob at -102 = 50.5%
- • Fair prob from Pinnacle = 50%
Result: EV = (0.50 × $98.04) - (0.50 × $100) = -$0.98 (slight -EV)
Not worth betting - the line is efficient
Example 2: Model-Based Player Prop
Scenario: Patrick Mahomes passing yards over 285.5
- • Book offers Over 285.5 at -115 (implied = 53.5%)
- • Your model projects Mahomes for 298 yards ± 42
- • Using normal distribution: P(over 285.5) = 62%
- • Your estimate exceeds implied by 8.5%
Result: EV = (0.62 × $86.96) - (0.38 × $100) = +$15.91 (+15.9% EV)
Strong +EV if your model is accurate
Example 3: Promo/Boost Conversion
Scenario: FanDuel offers "Mahomes 250+ yards boosted to +100"
- • Unboosted odds were -180 (implied = 64.3%)
- • Boosted to +100 (implied = 50%)
- • Using Pinnacle's no-vig line: true prob = 62%
Result: EV = (0.62 × $100) - (0.38 × $100) = +$24.00 (+24% EV)
Excellent +EV from the boost - max bet it
8. Bankroll & Bet Sizing for +EV Betting
Finding +EV is only half the battle. Proper bet sizing ensures you maximize profit while avoiding ruin.
The Kelly Criterion
Kelly Criterion tells you the mathematically optimal bet size based on your edge and the odds:
Kelly % = Edge / (Odds - 1)For a 5% edge at +100 odds: Kelly = 0.05 / 1 = 5% of bankroll
Full Kelly
Maximum growth but high variance. Only for large bankrolls and certain edges.
Fractional Kelly (Recommended)
Use 25-50% of Kelly. Smoother ride, still captures most of the edge.
9. Common +EV Betting Mistakes
Mistake #1: Overconfidence in Your Model
Your projections have uncertainty. If you find consistent 20%+ edges, your model is likely wrong, not the market. Start with fractional Kelly until you prove accuracy.
Mistake #2: Ignoring the Vig in Comparisons
Always remove the vig before comparing. A line that looks +EV might just be standard juice. Use our Hold Calculator to see the real edge.
Mistake #3: Chasing Steam Too Late
By the time you see line movement on Twitter, the value is gone. Either be first or focus on model-based approaches for props and smaller markets.
Mistake #4: Not Tracking CLV
Closing Line Value is the best indicator of true edge. If you're not beating the closing line, your "edge" may be luck. Track it with our CLV Calculator.
Mistake #5: Quitting After Short-Term Losses
Even +5% EV bettors have losing months. Variance is brutal. Trust the math, not short-term results. A 1000-bet sample is the minimum to evaluate edge.
Essential +EV Betting Tools
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a positive expected value (+EV) bet?
A +EV bet is a wager where the true probability of winning exceeds the implied probability from the odds. Over time, consistently placing +EV bets leads to profit regardless of short-term variance.
How do I know if a bet is +EV?
A bet is +EV when your estimated win probability is higher than the implied probability from the odds. For example, if odds imply 45% but you estimate 50%, you have +EV. Use our EV calculator to quantify the exact edge.
What EV percentage should I target?
Professional bettors target 2-5% EV on average. Even a 1% edge is valuable at high volume. Bets above 5% EV are rare but highly profitable. Be skeptical of consistent 10%+ edges - they often indicate model error.
Can I make money betting only +EV bets?
Yes, but it requires discipline, bankroll management, and volume. You will have losing days, weeks, and even months due to variance. However, if your edge is real and you manage your bankroll properly, you will profit long-term.
Why do sportsbooks offer +EV lines?
Sportsbooks balance action rather than set perfectly efficient lines. They also use different models and may be slow to react to news. Market inefficiencies, especially on props and smaller markets, create +EV opportunities.
What's more important: win rate or +EV?
+EV is more important. You can win 60% of bets and lose money if you're taking bad odds. Conversely, you can win 45% and profit handsomely if every bet is +EV. Focus on edge, not win percentage.
Start Finding +EV Bets Today
Use our free Expected Value Calculator to analyze your next bet. Enter the odds and your estimated probability to see if you have an edge worth betting.
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