Backup QB Impact Calculator
Quantify how teams perform with backup QBs vs starters. Backup QB situations are notoriously mispriced by books.
Backup QB Scenario
Play Calling Changes with Backup QBs
More conservative run game
Higher % of passes under 10 yards
Less play action due to timing issues
More checkdowns to RBs
Fewer attempts over 20 yards
Much less no-huddle offense
Prop Betting Implications
- • RB Rushing: OVER - More carries, checkdowns increase volume
- • WR Receiving Yards: UNDER - Fewer deep shots, shorter routes
- • RB Receptions: OVER - Checkdowns spike significantly
- • QB Passing Yards: UNDER - Conservative game plan
Backup QB Impact Reference
| Team | Starter | Backup | Rating | Spread Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Lamar Jackson | Josh Johnson | 65.8 | +6 |
| KC | Patrick Mahomes | Carson Wentz | 75.8 | +5.5 |
| BUF | Josh Allen | Mitchell Trubisky | 74.2 | +5 |
| MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | Skylar Thompson | 62.5 | +4.5 |
| GB | Jordan Love | Sean Clifford | 68.5 | +4 |
| HOU | C.J. Stroud | Davis Mills | 72.4 | +4 |
| LAC | Justin Herbert | Taylor Heinicke | 76.5 | +3.5 |
| DAL | Dak Prescott | Cooper Rush | 78.2 | +3 |
| CIN | Joe Burrow | Jake Browning | 82.1 | +2.5 |
| JAX | Trevor Lawrence | Mac Jones | 79.8 | +2 |
Backup QB Betting Strategy
Backup quarterback situations are among the most mispriced scenarios in NFL betting. Books often overreact to starter injuries, creating value on both sides depending on the backup's quality.
Key Patterns
- First Starts: Market typically overadjusts - backup ATS record improves after week 1
- Home vs Road: Backup QBs are 15% worse ATS on the road
- Totals: Games with backup QBs go under 58% of the time
- Prop Impact: RB props become massively +EV, WR props become -EV
Related Guides
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
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