Backup QB Impact Calculator

Quantify how teams perform with backup QBs vs starters. Backup QB situations are notoriously mispriced by books.

Backup QB Scenario

Play Calling Changes with Backup QBs

rush Attempts+4.2/game

More conservative run game

short Passes+18%

Higher % of passes under 10 yards

play Action-22%

Less play action due to timing issues

rb Targets+32%

More checkdowns to RBs

deep Passes-45%

Fewer attempts over 20 yards

hurry Up-65%

Much less no-huddle offense

Prop Betting Implications

  • RB Rushing: OVER - More carries, checkdowns increase volume
  • WR Receiving Yards: UNDER - Fewer deep shots, shorter routes
  • RB Receptions: OVER - Checkdowns spike significantly
  • QB Passing Yards: UNDER - Conservative game plan

Backup QB Impact Reference

TeamStarterBackupRatingSpread Adj
BALLamar JacksonJosh Johnson65.8+6
KCPatrick MahomesCarson Wentz75.8+5.5
BUFJosh AllenMitchell Trubisky74.2+5
MIATua TagovailoaSkylar Thompson62.5+4.5
GBJordan LoveSean Clifford68.5+4
HOUC.J. StroudDavis Mills72.4+4
LACJustin HerbertTaylor Heinicke76.5+3.5
DALDak PrescottCooper Rush78.2+3
CINJoe BurrowJake Browning82.1+2.5
JAXTrevor LawrenceMac Jones79.8+2

Backup QB Betting Strategy

Backup quarterback situations are among the most mispriced scenarios in NFL betting. Books often overreact to starter injuries, creating value on both sides depending on the backup's quality.

Key Patterns

  • First Starts: Market typically overadjusts - backup ATS record improves after week 1
  • Home vs Road: Backup QBs are 15% worse ATS on the road
  • Totals: Games with backup QBs go under 58% of the time
  • Prop Impact: RB props become massively +EV, WR props become -EV
Historical data from nflverse (2018-2025 seasons)

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

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