NBA Four Factors Calculator
Use Dean Oliver's Four Factors with pace adjustment to project NBA game outcomes and find betting value
Defense Allowed:
Defense Allowed:
Market Lines
Understanding Dean Oliver's Four Factors
Dean Oliver's Four Factors are the foundation of modern basketball analytics. They explain approximately 90% of the variance in team performance and are weighted by importance:
- eFG% (40% weight) - Effective Field Goal Percentage adjusts for three-pointers being worth more. League average is ~53.5%.
- TOV% (25% weight) - Turnover Rate measures turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better; league average is ~13.5%.
- ORB% (20% weight) - Offensive Rebound Rate gives extra possessions. League average is ~25%.
- FT Rate (15% weight) - Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA) measures ability to get to the line. League average is ~26.5%.
How This Calculator Works: Enter each team's Four Factors (available at basketball-reference.com) along with their defensive numbers. The calculator adjusts each team's offense based on the opposing defense, projects pace, and estimates final scores to compare against the market.
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
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