Risk of Ruin Calculator
Calculate your probability of losing your entire bankroll based on win rate, odds, and unit size. Essential for proper bankroll management and understanding betting risk.
2.0% of bankroll
Amount at which you'd stop betting (default: $0)
Very Low
< 1%
Professional-level risk management
Low
1-5%
Conservative, sustainable approach
Moderate
5-20%
Acceptable for experienced bettors
High
> 20%
Reduce unit size or improve edge
Understanding Risk of Ruin
Risk of Ruin (RoR) is the probability that you will lose your entire bankroll before achieving your goals. Even profitable bettors with a positive edge can go broke if they bet too large relative to their bankroll - this is why proper bankroll management is crucial.
The Math Behind Risk of Ruin
Risk of Ruin depends on three main factors: your edge (expected profit per bet), your unit size (bet size relative to bankroll), and variance (how much results fluctuate). A larger edge and smaller units both reduce RoR, while high variance increases it.
Kelly Criterion Explained
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that calculates the optimal bet size to maximize long-term bankroll growth. However, full Kelly is aggressive and comes with significant drawdowns. Most professional bettors use Half Kelly or Quarter Kelly to reduce volatility while still growing their bankroll efficiently.
Practical Guidelines
- Never bet more than 5% of bankroll: Even with a huge edge, large units create ruin risk
- 1-2% is standard: Most successful bettors use 1-2% unit sizes
- Account for variance: Higher odds bets need smaller unit sizes
- Recalculate regularly: Adjust units as your bankroll changes
- Have a stop-loss: Set a ruin threshold above $0 for mental health
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
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Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits




