Table of Contents
What Is Buying Points?
Buying points means paying extra juice (vig) to move a spread in your favor. Instead of taking Cowboys -3.5 at -110, you might buy a half point to get Cowboys -3 at -120.
Example: Moving a Spread
Standard Line
Cowboys -3.5 (-110)
Implied: 52.4% to cover
After Buying Half Point
Cowboys -3 (-120)
Implied: 54.5% to cover
The cost: 2.1% extra implied probability. The benefit: Push protection on exactly 3.
Key Terminology
- Buying Off: Moving to a key number (e.g., -3.5 → -3)
- Buying Through: Moving past a key number (e.g., -3.5 → -2.5)
- Push Protection: When games landing exactly on your spread become refunds instead of losses
NFL Key Numbers Explained
Key numbers in football are final score margins that occur more frequently than others. They exist because of football's unique scoring system:
Why Key Numbers Exist
3
Field Goal
Most common scoring margin
7
Touchdown + PAT
Second most common margin
6
Two Field Goals or TD (no PAT)
Third most common
10
TD + PAT + FG
Common two-score margin
These numbers matter because if a game lands exactly on your spread, the outcome changes from a loss to a push (or a push to a win).
Historical Data: How Often Games Land on Key Numbers
Based on over 15 years of NFL game data (4,000+ games), here's exactly how often games end with each margin of victory:
| Margin | Frequency | Push Value | Worth Buying? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 9.5% | 4.75% | |
| 7 | 6.5% | 3.25% | |
| 6 | 3.5% | 1.75% | Sometimes |
| 10 | 3.0% | 1.50% | Rarely |
| 4 | 2.5% | 1.25% | |
| 14 | 2.5% | 1.25% | |
| 1 | 2.0% | 1.00% | |
| All Others | 1-2% | 0.5-1% |
NFL Margin of Victory Distribution
3 and 7 account for 16% of all NFL games - roughly 1 in 6.
Break-Even Math: When It's Profitable
The decision to buy points is simple math: compare the cost of buying to the value you receive.
The Formula
Value Gained = Push Frequency ÷ 2
Half of pushes become wins, half were already wins anyway
Profitable If: Value Gained > Cost of Buying
Cost of Buying Points (by Juice)
-115
1.6% cost
-120
2.1% cost
-125
2.6% cost
-130
3.1% cost
Cost = Implied probability at new odds - Implied probability at -110
Break-Even Juice by Number
Case Study: Buying Off 3
The number 3 is the holy grail of NFL key numbers. Let's work through a complete example.
Scenario: Cowboys -3.5 at -110
Option A: Take -3.5 at -110
Win if Cowboys win by 4+, lose if they win by 3 or less
Option B: Buy to -3 at -120
Win if Cowboys win by 4+, push if they win by exactly 3
The Math
Value Gained:
9.5% ÷ 2 = 4.75%
Cost (at -120):
54.5% - 52.4% = 2.1%
Net Value: +2.65% → BUY THE HALF POINT
When NOT to Buy Off 3
- Juice is -140 or worse (cost exceeds value)
- You can get a 6-point teaser instead (better value)
- The line has moved significantly (indicates sharp action)
Case Study: Buying Off 7
The number 7 is the second-most important key number. Here's the analysis:
Scenario: Chiefs -7.5 at -110
Value of buying off 7
3.25%
6.5% frequency ÷ 2
Break-even juice
-122
Maximum to remain profitable
Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Buying Off Non-Key Numbers
Buying from -4.5 to -4 only gains ~1.25% value. At standard -120 juice (2.1% cost), you're losing 0.85% equity per bet. Only buy off 3, 7, and occasionally 6.
2. Ignoring the Juice
"I always buy off 3" is wrong. If the book charges -145 to buy from -3.5 to -3, you're paying 4.1% for 4.75% value - barely break-even after adjusting for pushes.
3. Buying Multiple Half Points
Buying from -3.5 to -2.5 (through 3) can be valuable, but buying from -3.5 to -2 costs extra and crosses no additional key numbers. The value diminishes rapidly.
4. Not Considering Teasers
A 6-point teaser crosses 3 AND 7 for -110 with two teams. That's often better than buying single points at -120 each.
5. Buying on Totals
NFL totals don't have key numbers like spreads. Scores of 41, 42, 43 are roughly equally likely. Buying points on totals is almost never profitable.
Complete Strategy Framework
Decision Tree: Should You Buy?
Is the spread on 3.5 or 7.5?
If no → Don't buy (skip to step 5)
What's the juice to buy the half point?
For 3: Check if juice ≤ -135. For 7: Check if juice ≤ -122.
Do you have a second teaser leg?
If yes → Consider teaser instead (often better value)
Make the decision
Buy the point if juice is below break-even threshold
Non-key number?
Take the standard line at -110 (don't buy)
Quick Reference Card
Always Buy (if available):
- • -3.5 to -3 at -120 or better
- • +2.5 to +3 at -120 or better
- • -7.5 to -7 at -115 or better
- • +6.5 to +7 at -115 or better
Never Buy:
- • Points on totals (O/U)
- • Non-key numbers (4, 5, 8, etc.)
- • At juice worse than break-even
- • When a teaser is available
Frequently Asked Questions
Is buying a half point off 3 worth it in the NFL?
Usually yes. NFL games land on exactly 3 about 9.5% of the time. Buying from -3.5 to -3 turns those losses into pushes, worth approximately 4.75% equity. If the juice is -120 or better (2.1% cost), it's profitable.
Should I buy points off 7 in the NFL?
Often yes. Games land on 7 about 6.5% of the time. Buying off 7 is worth approximately 3.25% equity. At -115 juice (1.6% cost), buying off 7 is profitable. At -125 juice, it becomes marginal.
Is it ever worth buying through 3 or 7?
Yes, if you're buying through the number (e.g., -3.5 to -2.5), you gain both the push protection AND wins when the margin lands exactly on that number. This can be worth up to 9.5% for the number 3.
What's the difference between buying points and a teaser?
Teasers move multiple spreads at once (usually 6 or 7 points) at reduced odds, while buying points moves a single spread by 0.5-1 point at increased juice. Teasers are generally better value for crossing multiple key numbers.
How much does buying half a point typically cost?
Most sportsbooks charge 10 cents (going from -110 to -120) for a half point on non-key numbers. For key numbers like 3, the cost is often 15-25 cents (-110 to -125/-135).
Calculate Your Edge
Use our Half Point Calculator to instantly see if buying points is profitable for any spread.