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Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Determine if a bet has positive or negative expected value. Enter the odds and your estimated win probability to find +EV opportunities.
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) measures the average profit or loss per bet over time. A positive EV (+EV) means you'll profit in the long run if your probability estimate is accurate.
The Formula: EV = (Win Probability × Profit) - (Loss Probability × Stake). Professional bettors focus exclusively on finding +EV opportunities.
Learn More About +EV Betting
How to Find +EV Bets: Complete Guide
Learn 4 proven methods for finding positive expected value bets, including sharp book comparison and building your own models.
Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing
Once you find +EV bets, learn how much to wager using the Kelly Criterion for optimal bankroll growth.
Closing Line Value: Prove Your Edge
Track CLV to measure if you're actually finding +EV - the ultimate metric for betting skill.
First Time Gelding: Quantifying the Angle
Learn at what odds the first time gelding angle becomes profitable. Data-driven analysis of +4.7 Beyer avg improvement.
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I calculate expected value on a bet?
EV = (win probability x profit) - (loss probability x stake). If you estimate 55% on a -110 bet risking $110 to win $100: (0.55 x $100) - (0.45 x $110) = $55.00 - $49.50 = +$5.50 EV per bet.
What is a +EV bet?
A +EV (positive expected value) bet is one where your estimated probability of winning exceeds the implied probability of the odds. Making +EV bets consistently is the only way to profit from sports betting long term.
How much edge do I need to be profitable at -110?
At -110 you need to win 52.38% of bets to break even. Anything above that is profit: a 55% win rate yields about 5% ROI per bet. Even the best professional bettors rarely sustain win rates above 55-57% on sides.
Can a bet with a low win probability still be +EV?
Yes. A +900 underdog only needs to win more than 10% of the time to be +EV. Expected value depends on the gap between true probability and implied probability, not on how often the bet wins.
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Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits