Expected Value (EV) Calculator

Determine if a bet has positive or negative expected value. Enter the odds and your estimated win probability to find +EV opportunities.

American Odds

Your Estimated Win Probability (%)

Stake Amount ($)

What is Expected Value?

Expected Value (EV) measures the average profit or loss per bet over time. A positive EV (+EV) means you'll profit in the long run if your probability estimate is accurate.

The Formula: EV = (Win Probability × Profit) - (Loss Probability × Stake). Professional bettors focus exclusively on finding +EV opportunities.

Learn More About +EV Betting

How to Find +EV Bets: Complete Guide

Learn 4 proven methods for finding positive expected value bets, including sharp book comparison and building your own models.

Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing

Once you find +EV bets, learn how much to wager using the Kelly Criterion for optimal bankroll growth.

Closing Line Value: Prove Your Edge

Track CLV to measure if you're actually finding +EV - the ultimate metric for betting skill.

First Time Gelding: Quantifying the Angle

Learn at what odds the first time gelding angle becomes profitable. Data-driven analysis of +4.7 Beyer avg improvement.

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

How to Use This Calculator

1
Enter the Odds: Input the American odds offered by the sportsbook (e.g., -110, +150)
2
Estimate Win Probability: Enter YOUR estimated probability of winning (not the book's implied probability)
3
Set Your Stake: Enter how much you plan to wager on this bet
4
Analyze the Result: Positive EV (+EV) means profitable long-term. Negative EV (-EV) means the house wins.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is expected value (EV) in sports betting?

Expected Value is the average profit or loss per bet if you made the same bet thousands of times. Positive EV (+EV) bets profit long-term; negative EV (-EV) bets lose money. Professional bettors focus exclusively on finding +EV opportunities.

How do you calculate expected value?

EV = (Win Probability × Profit) - (Loss Probability × Stake). Example: At -110 odds ($100 stake), if you estimate 55% win probability: EV = (0.55 × $90.91) - (0.45 × $100) = $50 - $45 = +$5 EV per bet, or +5% ROI.

What is a good EV percentage?

Any positive EV is technically profitable long-term. Sharp bettors typically look for 2-5%+ EV on main markets. Player props and smaller markets may offer higher EV (5-10%+) due to less efficient pricing. Even 1% consistent edge compounds significantly over time.

How do you find positive EV bets?

Common methods: 1) Compare odds to sharp books (Pinnacle) to find soft lines, 2) Build your own probability models, 3) Track Closing Line Value (CLV) - if you consistently beat the closing line, you're likely +EV, 4) Use Props Optimizer to identify mispriced lines.

Why does EV matter more than win rate?

You can have a high win rate and still lose money (betting heavy favorites at bad odds). EV accounts for both probability AND odds. A 40% win rate at +300 odds is more profitable than 60% win rate at -200. Focus on EV, not win percentage.