Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Determine if a bet has positive or negative expected value. Enter the odds and your estimated win probability to find +EV opportunities.
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) measures the average profit or loss per bet over time. A positive EV (+EV) means you'll profit in the long run if your probability estimate is accurate.
The Formula: EV = (Win Probability × Profit) - (Loss Probability × Stake). Professional bettors focus exclusively on finding +EV opportunities.
Learn More About +EV Betting
How to Find +EV Bets: Complete Guide
Learn 4 proven methods for finding positive expected value bets, including sharp book comparison and building your own models.
Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing
Once you find +EV bets, learn how much to wager using the Kelly Criterion for optimal bankroll growth.
Closing Line Value: Prove Your Edge
Track CLV to measure if you're actually finding +EV - the ultimate metric for betting skill.
First Time Gelding: Quantifying the Angle
Learn at what odds the first time gelding angle becomes profitable. Data-driven analysis of +4.7 Beyer avg improvement.
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
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Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits