Understanding NFL Key Numbers
Key numbers are the most common margins of victory in NFL games. Understanding them is fundamental to NFL betting success.
| Margin | Occurrence | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | ~15% of games | Field goal - most common margin |
| 7 | ~9% of games | Touchdown - second most common |
| 6 | ~5% of games | TD without extra point or 2 FGs |
| 10 | ~5% of games | TD + FG |
| 14 | ~4% of games | Two touchdowns |
Pro Tip: When betting spreads, pay extra attention to lines on or around 3 and 7. Buying half a point through these numbers is often +EV.
NFL Teaser Strategy
Teasers allow you to adjust spreads in your favor across multiple games. The key to profitable NFL teasers is crossing key numbers.
The Wong Teaser
Named after Stanford Wong, this strategy involves 6-point teasers on favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 (teased to -1.5 to -2.5) or underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 (teased to +7.5 to +8.5). This crosses both key numbers of 3 and 7.
Good Teaser Legs
- • Favorite -7.5 to -8.5 → -1.5 to -2.5
- • Underdog +1.5 to +2.5 → +7.5 to +8.5
- • Favorite -2 to -2.5 → +4 to +3.5
Avoid These
- • Already on -3 or +3 (only cross one key #)
- • Double-digit spreads (blowout variance)
- • Spreads not near key numbers
NFL Totals Betting
Betting totals (over/unders) requires understanding game pace, offensive efficiency, and external factors like weather.
Weather Impact on NFL Totals
NFL Player Props Strategy
Player prop markets are less efficient than main lines, offering more +EV opportunities for prepared bettors.
NFL Betting Tips
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best NFL betting strategy?
Focus on key numbers, use teasers wisely, fade public primetime favorites, consider weather, and find value in player props markets.
How do NFL teasers work?
Teasers let you adjust spreads 6-7 points in your favor on 2+ games for reduced odds. The key is teasing through 3 and 7.
What are key numbers in NFL betting?
Key numbers are common margins of victory: 3 (~15% of games), 7 (~9%), 6, 10, 13, 14, and 17. These matter for spread betting.