Live Betting & Hedging: How to Use In-Game Odds to Guarantee Profit
Your pre-game bet is winning. The live odds have shifted dramatically. Now you can lock in a guaranteed profit regardless of the final outcome. This guide shows you exactly how to hedge in-game bets using live odds, with step-by-step calculations and real examples.
Quick Answer: How Live Hedging Works
You bet $100 on Team A at +200 (to win $200). Team A goes up by 14 points. Team B's live moneyline is now +180. Bet $107 on Team B to guarantee ~$93 profit either way.
Calculate Your Hedge NowLive Hedging Calculators
In This Guide
What Is Live Hedging?
Live hedging is placing a bet on the opposite outcome of your original wager during the game, using shifted live odds to guarantee profit regardless of who wins. It's the most practical way to lock in gains when your bet is ahead.
How Live Odds Create Opportunities
You bet $100 on Underdog Team at +250. Potential payout: $350 ($250 profit).
Underdog is now winning by 14! Favorite's live moneyline: +200. The game has flipped.
Bet the Favorite at +200 live. Calculate exact stake to guarantee profit either way.
Live Hedge Flow
Complete Live Hedge Example
Let's walk through a real scenario step-by-step. This is exactly what happens when you use our Live Hedge Calculator.
Scenario: NFL Sunday
Jaguars are WINNING 24-10. They're covering easily. But anything can happen...
Try It Yourself
Enter your original bet and live odds to see your exact hedge stake and guaranteed profit.
Open Live Hedge CalculatorThe Hedge Formula
The math is simple once you understand it. Here's the formula for calculating your hedge stake to guarantee equal profit:
Step-by-Step Breakdown
Add your original stake to your potential profit. This is what you'd receive if you win.
American to decimal: Positive odds = (odds/100) + 1. Negative = (100/|odds|) + 1.
Your total return divided by live decimal odds equals the exact hedge stake.
Profit = Total Return - Hedge Stake - Original Stake
Quick Reference: Hedge Stakes by Live Odds
For a $100 bet at +200 (potential $300 return):
| Live Odds | Hedge Stake | Guaranteed Profit |
|---|---|---|
| +300 | $75.00 | $125.00 |
| +200 | $100.00 | $100.00 |
| +150 | $120.00 | $80.00 |
| +100 | $150.00 | $50.00 |
| -110 | $157.14 | $42.86 |
| -150 | $180.00 | $20.00 |
* Better live odds (higher plus numbers) = more guaranteed profit
When to Hedge (And When Not To)
When TO Hedge
- Large bets at risk
Significant bankroll % where loss would hurt
- Favorable live odds
Hedge side at +150 or better creates good profit
- Key injuries mid-game
Star player goes down, game dynamics shift
- Parlay last leg
3 legs hit, hedge the 4th for guaranteed profit
- Confidence dropped
New information makes you less sure of outcome
When NOT to Hedge
- Small bet amounts
Not worth the hassle for $10-20 bets
- Poor hedge odds
Hedge side at -200 or worse eats your profit
- Your bet is +EV
Hedging every +EV bet reduces long-term profits
- Emotional hedging
Don't hedge just because you're nervous
- High vig on live odds
Live betting has higher juice - factor that in
If your original bet is +EV (positive expected value), hedging actually reduces your long-term profits. You're trading guaranteed money now for higher expected money over time. Most recreational bettors should hedge for bankroll protection. Sharps let it ride.
Hedge vs Cash Out: Which Is Better?
Many sportsbooks offer a "Cash Out" button. But is it better than hedging yourself? Almost always, hedging is better.
Why Hedge Beats Cash Out
| Factor | Cash Out | Manual Hedge |
|---|---|---|
| Return % | 85-95% | 97-100% |
| Hidden margin | 5-15% juice | Only live vig |
| Convenience | One click | Manual calc |
| Partial options | Sometimes | Always |
| Flexibility | None | Full control |
$100 bet on Lakers -3.5 at -110. Lakers up by 10 at halftime.
Hedging the Last Leg of a Parlay
This is the most common live hedge scenario. You hit your first 3-4 legs and now have one game left for a big payout. Should you hedge?
Parlay Hedge Example
- Leg 1: Chiefs -3 ✓
- Leg 2: Bills ML ✓
- Leg 3: Cowboys Over 45 ✓
- Leg 4: 49ers -6.5 (SNF - pending)
Bet $310 on Seahawks +6.5 (-110) to guarantee ~$290 profit either way.
Bet $155 on Seahawks to reduce risk while keeping upside.
Don't hedge - go for the full $650 payout.
Instead of a 4-leg parlay, consider a round robin that creates multiple smaller parlays. You'll profit even if one leg loses. See our Round Robin Guide.
Partial Hedging Strategies
Full hedges guarantee profit but cap your upside. Partial hedges let you play both sides - reduce risk while keeping some of the big win potential.
Partial Hedge Comparison
Original: $100 on Team A at +200. Total return if win: $300. Live hedge odds: +150.
| Strategy | Hedge Stake | If A Wins | If B Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Hedge | $0 | +$200 | -$100 |
| 25% Hedge | $30 | +$170 | -$55 |
| 50% Hedge | $60 | +$140 | -$10 |
| 75% Hedge | $90 | +$110 | +$35 |
| Full Hedge | $120 | +$80 | +$80 |
Keep most upside, reduce worst-case. Good when you like your original bet but want insurance.
Profit-guaranteed on both sides but keeps some upside if original wins. Balanced approach.
Equal profit either way. Maximum risk reduction, zero variance. Sleep easy.
5 Common Live Hedging Mistakes
Hedging Too Late
Live odds move fast. By the time you calculate and place your hedge, odds may have shifted. Have accounts funded at multiple books and be ready to act quickly.
Ignoring the Vig
Live betting has higher juice (5-10% vs 4.5% pre-game). Factor this into your calculations. A hedge at -130 live is much worse than -110.
Hedging Every Bet
If you hedge every winning position, you're guaranteeing yourself a smaller long-term return. Only hedge when the situation warrants it.
Using Cash Out Instead
Cash out offers are 5-15% worse than manual hedges. Always calculate your hedge value first before accepting cash out.
Not Accounting for Stake
Remember: your guaranteed profit = (return from either outcome) - (total money invested). Don't forget to subtract BOTH stakes.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I hedge a live bet?
Note your original stake and potential payout, find live odds on the opposite outcome, use a hedge calculator to determine exact stake needed, then place the hedge bet quickly before odds shift.
Is hedging live bets profitable?
Hedging locks in smaller guaranteed profit instead of risking larger potential win. It's profitable for risk management but reduces maximum upside. The decision depends on your risk tolerance.
When should I hedge my bet in-game?
Consider hedging when: you have significant money at risk, live odds have moved favorably, key injuries occur, you're on the last leg of a parlay, or your confidence has decreased.
Should I hedge or use cash out?
Hedging at another sportsbook typically returns 5-15% more than cash out. Cash out includes the book's margin. Calculate both options first.
Can I hedge at the same sportsbook?
Yes, but you'll face the full vig on both sides. Hedging across different books often gets better odds, especially using a betting exchange for the hedge side.
What's a partial hedge?
Instead of betting enough to guarantee equal profit, you bet less to reduce risk while keeping some upside. A 50% hedge cuts your downside in half while preserving half your potential profit.
Ready to Lock In Your Profit?
Enter your original bet details and current live odds. Get your exact hedge stake and guaranteed profit in seconds.
Related Guides
Responsible Gambling
Sports betting should be fun, not a financial burden. Only bet what you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being enjoyable, please seek help.
National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700