Poisson Goal Predictor
Predict soccer and hockey scores using the Poisson probability distribution. Enter team statistics to calculate expected goals, match outcome probabilities, and most likely scorelines.
Home Team
Away Team
How the Poisson Distribution Works for Soccer Predictions
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model that predicts the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval. In soccer betting, it's used to predict the number of goals each team will score based on their historical performance.
Attack Strength measures how many goals a team scores compared to the league average. Defense Strength measures how many goals they concede. By combining these metrics, we calculate expected goals for each team.
This calculator accounts for home advantage (approximately 10% boost to home team's expected goals) and generates a probability matrix for every possible scoreline. Use these probabilities to identify value in match odds, correct score, and over/under markets.
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