The Weather Bettor's Edge: Quantifying Wind & Cold on NFL Totals
Move beyond "bad weather = under" with a data-driven model. Learn exactly how much to adjust totals based on wind speed and temperature, and find lines where the market hasn't fully priced in the conditions.
Quick Reference: Weather Adjustments
Wind Impact
15-20 mph: -2.5 points
20-25 mph: -4.0 points
25+ mph: -6.0+ points
Temperature Impact
32-40°F: -1.5 points
20-32°F: -3.0 points
<20°F: -5.0+ points
Why Weather Is the Market's Blind Spot
Every bettor knows that bad weather affects NFL totals. But most stop at the simple heuristic: "Wind + cold = bet the under." This creates an opportunity for quantitative bettors who know exactly how much to adjust.
The Market Inefficiency
What the Market Does
- • Adjusts totals by 1-2 points for "bad weather"
- • Treats all wind the same (15 mph = 25 mph)
- • Ignores wind direction entirely
- • Doesn't account for team-specific impacts
What the Data Shows
- • Impact scales non-linearly with wind speed
- • Combined wind + cold is multiplicative, not additive
- • Dome teams suffer 2-3x more than outdoor teams
- • Pass-heavy offenses lose more PPG than rush teams
Wind Speed Impact: The Data
Analysis of 2,500+ NFL games (2014-2024) with verified weather data reveals a clear, non-linear relationship between wind speed and scoring.
Points Reduction by Wind Speed
Relative to 0-10 mph baseline (calm conditions)
| Wind Speed | PPG Drop | Under % | Sample Size | Pass Yds/Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10 mph | Baseline | 48.5% | 1,842 | 468 yds |
| 10-15 mph | -1.2 pts | 52.1% | 412 | 445 yds |
| 15-20 mph | -2.5 pts | 58.3% | 156 | 412 yds |
| 20-25 mph | -4.0 pts | 65.2% | 68 | 378 yds |
| 25+ mph | -6.5 pts | 72.4% | 22 | 342 yds |
Wind Speed vs. Points Reduction
Note: Impact is non-linear. Each 5 mph increase has progressively larger effect.
Key Finding: The 15 mph Threshold
Wind under 15 mph has minimal impact on scoring. The market often overreacts to 10-12 mph "windy" forecasts, creating value on overs. The real edge is at 20+ mph, where the market typically under-adjusts by 1-2 points.
Temperature Impact: Cold Weather Unders
Temperature affects scoring primarily through ball handling (fumbles), kicking accuracy, and player fatigue. The impact accelerates significantly below freezing.
Points Reduction by Temperature
Relative to 50°F+ baseline
| Temperature | PPG Drop | Under % | Fumbles/Game | FG % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50°F+ | Baseline | 48.8% | 1.8 | 85.2% |
| 40-50°F | -0.8 pts | 51.2% | 2.0 | 84.1% |
| 32-40°F | -1.5 pts | 54.5% | 2.3 | 82.5% |
| 20-32°F | -3.0 pts | 62.1% | 2.8 | 78.2% |
| <20°F | -5.0 pts | 68.5% | 3.4 | 72.8% |
Temperature vs. Points Reduction
Combined Effects: Wind + Cold Multiplier
When wind and cold combine, the impact is multiplicative, not additive. Wind chill makes ball handling worse, and cold hands make throwing in wind even harder.
Combined Weather Impact Matrix
Total PPG reduction (wind + cold + interaction)
| Wind / Temp | 40-50°F | 32-40°F | 20-32°F | <20°F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 mph | -2.0 | -3.0 | -4.5 | -6.5 |
| 15-20 mph | -3.5 | -4.5 | -6.0 | -8.0 |
| 20-25 mph | -5.0 | -6.5 | -8.5 | -10.5 |
| 25+ mph | -7.5 | -9.0 | -11.0 | -13.0+ |
Extreme Weather Games
Games with 20+ mph wind AND sub-20°F temps are rare (5-8 per season) but extremely profitable. Historical under rate: 78%. The market typically moves totals down 4-5 points, but the data suggests 10+ is correct.
Team-Specific Weather Vulnerabilities
Not all teams are affected equally by weather. Dome teams and pass-heavy offenses suffer more than cold-weather, run-first teams.
Most Weather Vulnerable
*PPG drop in games with 15+ mph wind or <35°F
Least Weather Vulnerable
*These teams practice in cold/wind and adjust game plans
The Dome Team Angle
Dome teams traveling to outdoor cold/windy games is one of the oldest betting angles. Our data confirms it's still profitable:
-4.5
Avg PPG drop for dome teams
58%
Under hit rate
+3.2%
Avg ROI on unders
Step-by-Step: Finding Weather Value
Check Weather Forecast (Wednesday)
Use our NFL Weather Dashboard to identify games with forecasted 15+ mph winds or sub-35°F temps. Focus on outdoor stadiums only.
Calculate Your Adjusted Total
Use the tables above to calculate the weather adjustment. Example:
Game: Bills vs. Dolphins in Buffalo
Forecast: 22 mph wind, 28°F
Market total: 47.5
Wind adj: -4.0 (20-25 mph)
Temp adj: -3.0 (20-32°F)
Combo multiplier: -1.5 (interaction)
Fair total: 47.5 - 8.5 = 39.0
Calculate Expected Value
Use the True Odds Calculator to remove vig and compare to your fair total.
Market: Under 47.5 @ -110
Your fair total: 39.0
Edge: 8.5 points of value = ~68% win probability
EV = (0.68 × $91) - (0.32 × $100) = +$29.88
Consider Team-Specific Factors
Add additional adjustment for dome team matchups. If the Dolphins are playing, add another -2 to -3 points to your fair total.
Re-check Forecast Game Day
Weather forecasts change. Re-verify conditions on game day morning before placing large bets. Wind direction and gusts matter too.
Real Example: Week 17, 2023
Bills vs. Patriots - January 7, 2024
Highmark Stadium, Buffalo
Conditions
- • Temperature: 18°F
- • Wind: 24 mph gusting to 35
- • Snow flurries
Market
- • Opening total: 43.5
- • Closing total: 39.5
- • Under -110
Our Model's Fair Total:
Base: 43.5 - Wind (24 mph): -5.0 - Temp (<20°F): -5.0 - Combo: -2.0 = 31.5
Final Score
Bills 31 - Patriots 10
Total: 41 points
Result
OVER Hit
(Market over-adjusted)
Lesson: The market moved the total down 4 points, but our model suggested 12 points was correct. The game went over because the Bills are a cold-weather team and adjusted their game plan. Context matters.
Weather Impact on Player Props
Weather doesn't just affect totals—it dramatically impacts individual player props, often more than the market accounts for.
Prop Adjustments in Bad Weather
15+ mph wind or <35°F
| Prop Type | Avg Drop | Under % | Best Play |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Pass Yards | -42 yds | 61% | Under on dome QBs |
| QB Pass TDs | -0.6 TDs | 58% | Under 1.5 |
| WR Receiving Yards | -18 yds | 59% | Under on deep threats |
| RB Rush Yards | +12 yds | 45% | Over on workhorse backs |
| RB Receptions | +1.2 rec | 42% | Over (checkdowns increase) |
| Kicker Points | -2.5 pts | 64% | Under on FGs made |
Pro Tip: The RB Bump
While most props go under in bad weather, running back props often go OVER. Teams run more, and workhorse backs see 5-8 additional carries. Target RBs on teams with strong offensive lines in cold/windy games.
5 Weather Betting Mistakes to Avoid
Overreacting to "Windy" Forecasts
10-12 mph wind is normal and has minimal impact. The market often moves totals down 1-2 points for these conditions, creating value on overs. Only wind 15+ mph matters.
Ignoring Wind Direction
A 20 mph crosswind is worse than a 20 mph headwind/tailwind. Crosswinds make passing unpredictable in both directions. Headwind/tailwind allows teams to adjust.
Not Adjusting for Team Style
A run-first team like the Ravens in bad weather might actually see their offense improve relative to opponents. Don't blindly bet under without considering game plan adjustments.
Betting Early on Weather
Forecasts change. A Wednesday forecast of 25 mph wind might be 12 mph by Sunday. Bet weather plays as close to game time as possible, ideally Sunday morning.
Forgetting About Rain/Snow
Rain alone drops totals ~2.5 points. Snow without wind is less impactful than you'd think (~1.5 points). But rain + wind or snow + wind compounds effects significantly.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much does wind really affect NFL totals?
Wind under 15 mph has minimal impact (-1.2 PPG). At 20-25 mph, expect -4.0 points. Above 25 mph, the impact is -6.5+ points. The relationship is non-linear—each additional 5 mph has a larger effect than the previous 5 mph.
Are unders automatically profitable in bad weather?
No. The market adjusts for weather, so you need to find situations where the adjustment is insufficient. Extreme weather (25+ mph wind, sub-20°F) tends to be under-adjusted. Moderate weather (15 mph, 35°F) is often over-adjusted, creating value on overs.
Which teams are most affected by weather?
Dome teams (Falcons, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Cardinals, Raiders, Saints, Colts) suffer most when traveling to cold/windy outdoor games. Pass-heavy teams with vertical offenses (Dolphins, Bucs) also struggle. Run-first cold-weather teams (Bills, Packers, Bears) are least affected.
When is the best time to bet weather?
Sunday morning, after checking the final forecast. Forecasts change significantly from Wednesday to Sunday. If you see a line that hasn't moved despite worsening conditions, that's often value. If the line has already moved 3+ points, the value may be gone.
Does weather affect spreads or just totals?
Weather primarily affects totals, but it can impact spreads when one team is significantly more weather-vulnerable. A dome team facing a cold-weather team in December outdoors might deserve 1-2 extra points on the spread adjustment.
Start Finding Weather Value Today
Use our NFL Weather Dashboard to identify upcoming games with significant weather conditions, then calculate your fair total using the data in this guide.
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