March Madness Bracket Calculator

Calculate NCAA Tournament bracket probabilities, upset rates, and betting value using historical seed data from 1985-2024.

Enter American odds (e.g., -2000 for heavy favorite)

Historical Upset Rate
0.6%

#16 beats #1 historically

Implied Probability
4.8%

Market implied underdog win rate

Betting Value Analysis
Value on Underdog (#16)-4.2%
Value on Favorite (#1)+4.2%
Historical Advancement Rates
SeedR64R32S16E8F4Final
#199.4%87.5%68.8%50%37.5%25%
#160.6%0.2%0.05%0.02%0.01%0.005%

Historical data based on NCAA Tournament games from 1985-2024. Individual game outcomes depend on many factors including team strength, injuries, and matchup specifics.

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

How to Use This Calculator

  1. 1
    Select Seeds: Choose the favorite and underdog seed numbers for the matchup.
  2. 2
    Enter Odds: Input the current moneyline odds on the favorite.
  3. 3
    Analyze Value: Compare implied probability to historical upset rates to find betting value.
  4. 4
    Check Advancement: View each seed's historical advancement rates by round.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are historical upset rates?

Historical upset rates are based on every NCAA Tournament game from 1985-2024 (nearly 40 years of data). While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, these rates provide a solid baseline for expected outcomes.

What's the most common upset in March Madness?

The 12 vs 5 matchup is the most famous upset spot, with 12 seeds winning about 35% of the time. The 11 vs 6 and 10 vs 7 matchups are also common upsets at 37-40%.

Has a 16 seed ever beaten a 1 seed?

Yes! UMBC defeated Virginia 74-54 in 2018, becoming the first 16 seed to beat a 1 seed in tournament history. In 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson also upset Purdue as a 16 seed.

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