March Madness Bracket Calculator
Calculate NCAA Tournament bracket probabilities, upset rates, and betting value using historical seed data from 1985-2024.
Enter American odds (e.g., -2000 for heavy favorite)
#16 beats #1 historically
Market implied underdog win rate
| Seed | R64 | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 99.4% | 87.5% | 68.8% | 50% | 37.5% | 25% |
| #16 | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.005% |
Historical data based on NCAA Tournament games from 1985-2024. Individual game outcomes depend on many factors including team strength, injuries, and matchup specifics.
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
How to Use This Calculator
- 1Select Seeds: Choose the favorite and underdog seed numbers for the matchup.
- 2Enter Odds: Input the current moneyline odds on the favorite.
- 3Analyze Value: Compare implied probability to historical upset rates to find betting value.
- 4Check Advancement: View each seed's historical advancement rates by round.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate are historical upset rates?
Historical upset rates are based on every NCAA Tournament game from 1985-2024 (nearly 40 years of data). While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, these rates provide a solid baseline for expected outcomes.
What's the most common upset in March Madness?
The 12 vs 5 matchup is the most famous upset spot, with 12 seeds winning about 35% of the time. The 11 vs 6 and 10 vs 7 matchups are also common upsets at 37-40%.
Has a 16 seed ever beaten a 1 seed?
Yes! UMBC defeated Virginia 74-54 in 2018, becoming the first 16 seed to beat a 1 seed in tournament history. In 2023, Fairleigh Dickinson also upset Purdue as a 16 seed.
Props Optimizer
Take your sports betting analysis to the next level with Props Optimizer - tools and data to help you make more informed decisions.
Try Props Optimizer Free$ Partner Bonuses
Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits




