Live Win Probability Calculator
Calculate real-time win probability for NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL games. Project final scores, find live betting value on spreads and totals. The only free live betting calculator.
Compare to Live Lines (Optional)
Free Live Win Probability Calculator
Our live win probability calculator is the only free tool that calculates real-time win percentages for NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and college sports. Premium services like Unabated charge $99+/month for similar functionality.
How the Model Works
The calculator uses a logistic regression model that factors in:
- Current Score Differential: The most important factor, weighted more heavily late in games
- Time Remaining: Win probability stabilizes as the game progresses
- Pregame Spread: Adjusts for team quality - a 3-point lead means more for an underdog
- Possession: In football, having the ball adds ~3% to win probability
Finding Live Betting Value
The key to profitable live betting is comparing your calculated fair lines to the sportsbook's live lines. When you find 2+ points of edge on spreads or 4+ points on totals, you've likely found a +EV opportunity. Enter the current live lines to see instant EV analysis.
Sport-Specific Considerations
- NFL: Possession is crucial. Timeouts and field position matter late.
- NBA: Leads are less safe due to high scoring. Pace affects projections.
- MLB: Run differential is key. Bullpen quality affects late-game probabilities.
- NHL: Goals are rare - each one shifts probability significantly.
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This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
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- Betting more than you can afford to lose
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