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Correlated Parlay Calculator
Calculate the true odds and expected value of parlays with correlated outcomes. Find value when sportsbooks price same-game parlays as if legs were independent.
Positive = outcomes move together, Negative = inverse relationship
Understanding Correlated Parlays
Standard parlay odds assume each leg is independent, but many bets are actually correlated. For example, if a team's star player scores many points, the team is more likely to win - these outcomes are positively correlated.
Positive correlation means both outcomes are more likely to happen together than independent probability suggests. Negative correlation means if one happens, the other is less likely.
Common correlations: Team total over + team win (~0.3-0.5), Player props + team win (~0.2-0.4), Game total over + favorite cover (~0.1-0.3). When books don't fully account for correlation, you can find +EV bets.
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do same-game parlay payouts seem low?
Because the legs are correlated, books reduce SGP payouts 10-25% below what independent multiplication would pay. A QB's passing yards and his WR's receiving yards tend to hit together, so the book prices that dependency into the combined odds.
Can same-game parlays be +EV?
Occasionally - when your legs are more strongly correlated than the book's model assumes, the posted price can still undervalue the true joint probability. Highly correlated combos like team win + star player over are where value hides.
What is correlation in a same-game parlay?
Correlation means leg outcomes move together. Positive correlation (blowout win + RB rushing over) raises the true joint probability above independent multiplication; negative correlation (both team totals over in a defensive game) lowers it.
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