Correlated Parlay Calculator
Calculate the true odds and expected value of parlays with correlated outcomes. Find value when sportsbooks price same-game parlays as if legs were independent.
Positive = outcomes move together, Negative = inverse relationship
Understanding Correlated Parlays
Standard parlay odds assume each leg is independent, but many bets are actually correlated. For example, if a team's star player scores many points, the team is more likely to win - these outcomes are positively correlated.
Positive correlation means both outcomes are more likely to happen together than independent probability suggests. Negative correlation means if one happens, the other is less likely.
Common correlations: Team total over + team win (~0.3-0.5), Player props + team win (~0.2-0.4), Game total over + favorite cover (~0.1-0.3). When books don't fully account for correlation, you can find +EV bets.
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Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits