The Test of a Champion: Belmont Stakes Pedigree & Stamina Guide
Where Triple Crown dreams are forged or shattered. Master the classic with pedigree analysis, stamina scoring, and data-driven strategies for identifying horses built to conquer America's third jewel. 2026: 10 furlongs at Saratoga.
9
2026 Field Size
10f
1¼ mi at Saratoga
91.5
Top Stamina Score
Jun 6
Race Day 2026
Get Real-Time Pedigree Data with TrackWiz
AI-powered stamina analysis, sire statistics, and Belmont-specific projections
The Test of a Champion: Why Distance Matters
The Brutal Math of 1½ Miles
The Belmont Stakes at 1½ miles (12 furlongs) is a full quarter-mile longer than the Kentucky Derby and a half-mile longer than the Preakness. For 3-year-olds who've never run this far, it's uncharted territory—and that's exactly what makes it "The Test of a Champion."
Saratoga's New Challenge (2024+)
With the Belmont at Saratoga during Big Sandy renovations, the distance dropped to 1¼ miles—the same as the Derby. This changes the calculus significantly:
- Speed horses more viable at shorter distance
- Stamina less of a determining factor
- Derby form translates more directly
- Historical pedigree data less predictive
"The Derby is won by the fastest horse. The Belmont is won by the best horse."
— Racing Proverb
The Immortals: 13 Triple Crown Champions
From Sir Barton in 1919 to Justify in 2018, only 13 horses have conquered all three classics. The 37-year drought between Affirmed (1978) and American Pharoah (2015) shows just how difficult it is to pass the Belmont's ultimate test.
| Year | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Belmont Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Justify | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 1¾ lengths |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 5½ lengths |
| 1978 | Affirmed | Laz Barrera | Steve Cauthen | Head |
| 1977 | Seattle Slew | Billy Turner | Jean Cruguet | 4 lengths |
| 1973 | Secretariat | Lucien Laurin | Ron Turcotte | 31 lengths |
| 1948 | Citation | Ben Jones | Eddie Arcaro | 8 lengths |
| 1946 | Assault | Max Hirsch | Warren Mehrtens | 3 lengths |
| 1943 | Count Fleet | Don Cameron | Johnny Longden | 25 lengths |
| 1941 | Whirlaway | Ben Jones | Eddie Arcaro | 2½ lengths |
| 1937 | War Admiral | George Conway | Charles Kurtsinger | 3 lengths |
| 1935 | Omaha | Jim Fitzsimmons | Willie Saunders | 1½ lengths |
| 1930 | Gallant Fox | Jim Fitzsimmons | Earl Sande | 3 lengths |
| 1919 | Sir Barton | H. Guy Bedwell | Johnny Loftus | 5 lengths |
The 31-Length Legend
June 9, 1973. Secretariat entered the Belmont as a heavy favorite seeking the first Triple Crown in 25 years. What happened next transcended sport: Big Red won by an unfathomable 31 lengths, setting a track record of 2:24 flat that still stands 50+ years later. The final quarter-mile was his fastest—an impossible feat at that distance.
2:24.00
Track Record (Still Stands)
31
Lengths Winning Margin
:23.4
Final Quarter Mile
1-10
Odds (Heavy Favorite)
The Dream Crushers: When Belmont Blows Up the Storyline
The Belmont Stakes does not just crown champions. It has a long history of wrecking Triple Crown dreams, flipping the betting board, and turning overlooked horses into legends.
True Triple Crown Dream Crushers
These horses denied Triple Crown bids when Derby and Preakness winners came to Belmont Park seeking immortality.
Tonalist
Denied: California Chrome's Triple Crown bid
Won by Head
Stopped Chrome's run at immortality
Da' Tara
Denied: Big Brown's Triple Crown bid
Won by 5¼ lengths
Big Brown eased, one of racing's biggest shocks
Birdstone
Denied: Smarty Jones's Triple Crown bid
Won by 1 length
Philly's beloved undefeated hero denied
Sarava
Denied: War Emblem's Triple Crown bid
Won by ½ length
Biggest Belmont upset in history
Lemon Drop Kid
Denied: Charismatic's Triple Crown bid
Won by Head
Charismatic broke down, tragic Triple Crown loss
Victory Gallop
Denied: Real Quiet's Triple Crown bid
Won by Nose
Denied Real Quiet by inches at the wire
Belmont Betting Bombs
Longshot winners who crushed tickets and proved the Belmont loves an upset, even without a Triple Crown on the line.
Dornoch
Won by ¾ length
Beat favored Sierra Leone and Mystik Dan
Sir Winston
Won by 1 length
Classic Belmont surprise, overlooked closer
Creator
Won by Nose
Photo finish upset, crushed many tickets
The Heartbreak of 2004: Smarty Jones
Philadelphia's beloved Smarty Jones entered the 2004 Belmont undefeated with massive public support. At odds of 1-5, he was the shortest favorite in decades. In the stretch, the crowd could taste history—until 36-1 longshot Birdstone surged past in the final strides. The $102.50 exacta payout remains one of the most unlikely in Belmont history.
Betting Lesson:
Heavy favorites coming off the Derby and Preakness are running their third demanding race in 5 weeks. Fresh horses without that grind have a physiological advantage—especially at 12 furlongs. Use the True Odds Calculator to find fair odds on Triple Crown spoilers.
Who's This Year's Dream-Crusher?
Open TrackWiz before the Belmont and find the horse the public is missing. Our AI analyzes pedigree, stamina scores, and fresh horse advantages to identify potential spoilers before the odds collapse.
Find This Year's Spoiler →TrackWiz Stamina Score v3
Methodology and ratings by TrackWiz · Data as of June 4, 2026
The TrackWiz Stamina Score v3 is a proprietary 0-100 distance-aptitude rating combining pedigree analysis, proven race history, and running style. Note: This year's Belmont is run at 10 furlongs (1¼ miles) at Saratoga, not the traditional 12 furlongs at Belmont Park.
Stamina Score v3 Formula
SS = (Sire Distance Index × 0.35) + (Broodmare Sire Index × 0.25) +
(Proven Distance × 0.25) + (Running Style × 0.15)
Component breakdown:
- 35%Sire Distance Index — the sire's progeny distance profile, scaled 0-100
- 25%Broodmare Sire Index — the damsire's stamina influence, scaled 0-100
- 25%Proven Distance — longest trip where the horse demonstrated it stays (see method below)
- 15%Running Style — Closer = 100, Presser = 50, Speed = 0
Score interpretation:
How Proven Distance is scored (v3 method)
Credit the longest distance at which the horse has demonstrated it stays:
- Won → full distance credit
- Finished within ~2 lengths of the winner → distance credit −3
- Stayed on mid-pack without flattening (ran the trip, didn't fire but didn't quit) → distance credit −8
- Faded or visually empty finish → earns no credit for that distance (evidence against stamina)
Distance scaling (anchored to 12f = 100):
Important caveats
- 1. This Belmont is 10f at Saratoga, not the traditional 12f — read absolute scores with that in mind.
- 2. Sire and damsire indices are TrackWiz-assigned from distance profiles, not a published standard. The relative ranking is the product; absolute decimals depend on calibration.
- 3. The 85+ → 62% board-rate stat was calibrated to a 12f Belmont with route-proven horses; it does not transfer cleanly to a sophomore field in a 10f race.
Calculate Stamina Scores Instantly with TrackWiz
TrackWiz's AI automatically computes Stamina Scores for every Belmont entrant, pulling real-time pedigree data, sire statistics, and running style analysis. Get projections updated as the field takes shape.
Get Belmont Stamina Projections →2026 Belmont Stakes Field
158th Belmont Stakes · Saturday, June 6, 2026 · Saratoga Race Course · 1¼ miles (10f) · 9-horse field
Data as of June 4, 2026 — confirm no late scratches before betting
#1Golden TempoPP9ML 9-291.5Elite stayer
Pedigree
Curlin × Carrumba, by Bernardini
Connections
Phipps Stable & St. Elias Stable · Trainer Cherie DeVaux · Jockey Jose Ortiz
Record
5-3-0-2, $3,433,000
Running style
Deep closer — needs an honest/fast pace to set up his run
Key races
Kentucky Derby (10f) 1st of 18 at 23-1, rallied from dead last · Louisiana Derby (9.5f) 3rd · Risen Star (9f) 3rd · Lecomte (8.5f) 1st
Stamina Score breakdown
Sire idx
95
Damsire idx
90
Proven
83
Style
100
Notes
First woman-trained Derby winner (DeVaux). Skipped the Preakness to point at the Belmont. Curlin-over-Bernardini is one of the most proven classic-stamina crosses. Risk: Saratoga tends to favor speed; he may not get the pace meltdown he thrives on.
#2RenegadePP4ML 2-183.3Should handle
Pedigree
Into Mischief × Spice Is Nice, by Curlin
Connections
Repole Stable, Robert & Lawana Low · Trainer Todd Pletcher · Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
Record
6-2-3-1, $2,031,500
Running style
Deep closer (may sit closer given field size)
Key races
Kentucky Derby (10f) 2nd of 18, beaten a neck · Arkansas Derby G1 (9f) 1st · Sam F. Davis (8.5f) 1st
Stamina Score breakdown
Sire idx
70
Damsire idx
95
Proven
80
Style
100
Notes
Carries Curlin + Bernardini stamina pattern on the dam side. Stablemate Powershift figures to set the pace and give him a target. The sire (Into Mischief) is the speed-leaning influence that caps his Sire Index.
#3Emerging MarketPP8ML 6-180Should handle
Pedigree
Candy Ride (ARG) × Wild Empress, by Empire Maker
Connections
Klaravich Stables · Trainer Chad Brown · Jockey Flavien Prat
Record
3-2-0-0, $618,880
Running style
Presser — runs closer to the pace than the deep closers
Key races
Louisiana Derby (9.5f) 1st of 9 · Kentucky Derby (10f) 10th of 18 — came up empty in the stretch
Stamina Score breakdown
Sire idx
85
Damsire idx
92
Proven
79
Style
50
Notes
Only 3 career starts. His 80 rests on a 9.5f win plus a 10f fade — the score equals Renegade's, but the underlying distance evidence is softer. A ground-saving trip is likely what he needs to bounce back.
#4Vitruvian ManPP1ML 30-176.5Questionable
Pedigree
Vino Rosso × Caradini, by Bernardini
Connections
Glenn Sorgenstein / WC Racing Inc. · Trainer Doug O'Neill · Jockey Antonio Fresu
Record
6-1-1-2, $142,345
Running style
Mid-pack / presser
Key races
Santa Anita Derby (9f) 3rd of 7 at 47-1, but a distant third · broke maiden in October at Keeneland
Stamina Score breakdown
Sire idx
85
Damsire idx
90
Proven
67
Style
50
Notes
Pedigree reads stamina (Vino Rosso/Curlin top, Bernardini bottom) but speed figures sit well below this group. The score is propped up by pedigree, not by anything he's done on the track. Major improvement needed.
#5Chief WallabeePP3ML 3-175.5Questionable
Pedigree
Constitution × A La Lucie, by Medaglia d'Oro
Connections
Michael & Katherine Ball · Trainer William Mott · Jockey Junior Alvarado
Record
4-1-1-1, $466,600
Running style
Mid-pack, closes late
Key races
Kentucky Derby (10f) 4th of 18, late move through traffic · Florida Derby (9f) 3rd · Fountain of Youth (8.5f) 2nd
Stamina Score breakdown
Sire idx
80
Damsire idx
85
Proven
75
Style
50
Notes
Mott trained 2025 Belmont winner Sovereignty; connections eyeing back-to-back. Drew arguably the best trip in the race (clean post). Lightly raced with upside. Any price above 5-1 is a live win play per public handicappers.
#6OttinhoPP5ML 20-173.6Questionable
Pedigree
Quality Road × Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway
Connections
Three Chimneys Farm · Trainer Chad Brown · Jockey Dylan Davis
Record
4-1-1-2, $324,700
Running style
Presser / tactical speed
Key races
Blue Grass (9f) 2nd of 7 but beaten ~11 lengths · Withers (9f) 3rd of 7, also well beaten
Stamina Score breakdown
Sire idx
78
Damsire idx
88
Proven
67
Style
50
Notes
Skipped the Derby despite qualifying. Pedigree is route-friendly (Quality Road, Giant's Causeway, Rachel Alexandra family) but he's been beaten double digits at the route. Needs a big step forward.
#7CommandmentPP7ML 6-172Questionable
Pedigree
Into Mischief × Sippican Harbor, by Orb
Connections
Wathnan Racing · Trainer Brad Cox · Jockey John Velazquez
Record
6-4-0-0, $1,017,339
Running style
Presser / stalker, more forward than deep closers
Key races
Florida Derby (9f) 1st of 6 · Fountain of Youth (8.5f) 1st · Kentucky Derby (10f) 7th of 18, bumped while making a late run
Stamina Score breakdown
Sire idx
70
Damsire idx
85
Proven
75
Style
50
Notes
Beat Chief Wallabee twice on the Gulfstream circuit. The Belmont answers whether his Derby 7th was a bad trip (bumped) or a class ceiling. A cleaner trip in a smaller field could put him back in front.
#8Growth EquityPP6ML 12-164Likely to tire
Pedigree
Nyquist × My Dear Venezuela, by Wildcat Heir
Connections
Klaravich Stables · Trainer Chad Brown · Jockey Manny Franco
Record
4-2-2-0, $187,600
Running style
Stalker / presser
Key races
Peter Pan G3 (9f) 1st of 5 — drew off but over modest fractions
Stamina Score breakdown
Sire idx
72
Damsire idx
50
Proven
75
Style
50
Notes
Late bloomer on a quick upward curve, but the Wildcat Heir broodmare sire drags the score — the bottom of the pedigree is sprint-oriented. The Peter Pan was a 5-horse field over soft fractions; this is a steep class and stamina test.
#9PowershiftPP2ML 12-160.8Likely to tire
Pedigree
Constitution × Free Flying Soul, by Quiet American
Connections
Repole Stable · Trainer Todd Pletcher · Jockey Luis Saez
Record
3-1-1-0, $81,896
Running style
Speed — the field's projected lone pacesetter
Key races
Broke maiden on Derby day at Churchill (8.5f), stalked and won comfortably · Tampa Bay Derby (8.5f) 6th of 9
Stamina Score breakdown
Sire idx
80
Damsire idx
60
Proven
71
Style
0
Notes
Likely deployed as the pace/rabbit to set up stablemate Renegade. Only three career starts and a big class jump. Weakest broodmare-sire stamina in the field (Quiet American). How honest a pace he sets is the single biggest variable for the closers.
Pace scenario
Powershift is the lone confirmed early speed. If nobody presses him, fractions could be soft — which hurts the deep closers (Golden Tempo, Renegade) who want a fast, collapsing pace, and helps the forwardly-placed types (Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Growth Equity, Emerging Market). The Stamina Score rates raw distance aptitude; pair it with the pace read before betting.
Get the Full Analysis on TrackWiz
Real-time odds updates, AI pace projections, and instant Stamina Score calculations for every race — not just the Belmont.
Open TrackWiz →Key Stamina Sires Reference
Historical Belmont performance by sire — for context when evaluating pedigrees.
| Sire | Avg Win Dist | Belmont Wins | Belmont ITM | Stamina Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapit | 9.2f | 2 | 8 | 92 |
| Curlin | 9.5f | 1 | 5 | 95 |
| Medaglia d'Oro | 9.3f | 1 | 4 | 93 |
| Street Sense | 9.0f | 1 | 3 | 90 |
| Into Mischief | 8.4f | 0 | 2 | 72 |
| Gun Runner | 9.1f | 0 | 3 | 91 |
| Constitution | 8.8f | 1 | 4 | 88 |
| Quality Road | 8.6f | 0 | 2 | 82 |
| Uncle Mo | 8.7f | 0 | 3 | 85 |
| Pioneerof the Nile | 9.4f | 1 | 2 | 94 |
Belmont Post Position Analysis
At 1½ miles with a long first turn, inside posts have an advantage. The outside posts (9-12) require either early speed to secure position or extra ground traveled—neither ideal for stamina-dependent late-runners.
| Post | Wins | ITM | Win % | ITM % | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 29 | 5.6% | 20.3% | Inside saves ground |
| 2 | 7 | 27 | 4.9% | 18.9% | Clean early position |
| 3 | 12 | 35 | 8.4% | 24.5% | Optimal inside |
| 4 | 10 | 31 | 7% | 21.7% | Good tactical spot |
| 5 | 11 | 33 | 7.7% | 23.1% | Prime position |
| 6 | 9 | 28 | 6.3% | 19.6% | Versatile |
| 7 | 8 | 26 | 5.6% | 18.2% | Speed helps |
| 8 | 7 | 24 | 4.9% | 16.8% | Wide but ok |
| 9 | 5 | 20 | 3.5% | 14% | Disadvantage starts |
| 10 | 4 | 17 | 2.8% | 11.9% | Extra distance |
| 11 | 3 | 14 | 2.1% | 9.8% | Far outside |
| 12 | 2 | 10 | 1.4% | 7% | Severe disadvantage |
Prime Posts (3-5)
23.1% combined win rate. Clean break, good tactical positioning, minimal extra ground.
Acceptable Posts (1-2, 6-8)
Inside requires tactical speed; outside needs early position or closer style.
Danger Zone (9-12)
Only 9.8% combined win rate. Severe extra distance traveled on the long first turn.
The Belmont Betting Playbook
Triple Crown Spoiler Strategy
When a horse enters seeking the Triple Crown, public money floods in. Use this to find value on fresh horses with stamina pedigrees.
Step 1: Calculate True Odds
Use the True Odds Calculator to remove vig and find the spoiler's fair odds
Step 2: Find Stamina Advantage
Fresh horses with SS 85+ and posts 1-7 are prime spoiler candidates
Step 3: Structure Trifecta Keys
Use Trifecta Wheel Calculator to key spoilers on top
Standard Belmont Strategy
In non-Triple Crown years, focus purely on stamina profiles and value odds.
Focus: Stamina Score 85+
Horses with proven staying pedigrees hit board 62% at Belmont
Running Style: Closers
Deep closers excel at 12 furlongs as speed horses tire in the stretch
Value Threshold: 3-1+
Stamina horses at 3-1 or higher offer consistent +EV in exotics
Exotic Betting Structures by Budget
$25 Budget
- $2 Win on top stamina horse
- $6 Exacta box (3 horses)
- $12 Trifecta key (1 with 4 others)
- $5 saved for live betting
$50 Budget
- $5 Win on stamina longshot
- $12 Exacta box (4 horses)
- $24 Trifecta box (4 horses)
- $9 saved for live/show parlay
$100+ Budget
- $10 Dutched win pool (3 horses)
- $24 Trifecta box (4 horses)
- $48 Superfecta part-wheel
- $18 remaining for late value
Case Study: Tonalist (2014) - The Perfect Spoiler
The Setup
California Chrome entered the 2014 Belmont seeking the Triple Crown after dominant wins in the Derby and Preakness. The crowd of 100,000+ was ready to crown him.
Tonalist's Profile:
- • Sire: Tapit (Stamina Rating: 92)
- • Fresh: Skipped Kentucky Derby & Preakness
- • Distance proven: Won Peter Pan at 1⅛ miles
- • Post 11—the one concern
Stamina Score: 91
Elite Stayer designation
The Edge
Opening Line: 9-1
Fair value based on stamina analysis: 6-1. Significant overlay due to California Chrome mania distorting the market.
Result: Won by a head
Tonalist stalked the pace, then surged past a tiring California Chrome in deep stretch. The $21.20 win payout was pure value.
Exotic Payouts:
- • Exacta (Tonalist/Commissioner): $137.00
- • Trifecta: $610.00
- • Superfecta: $5,854.00
Get Your Belmont Stamina Analysis from TrackWiz
TrackWiz provides real-time Stamina Scores, pedigree analysis, and Belmont-specific projections for every entrant. Don't handicap the Test of a Champion without the best data.
Get Belmont Projections Free →Essential Belmont Betting Tools
True Odds Calculator
Find no-vig fair odds
Trifecta Wheel Calculator
Key stamina horses on top
Dutching Calculator
Spread win bets across stayers
Expected Value Calculator
Calculate +EV at current odds
Superfecta Box Calculator
Structure deep exotic wagers
Odds/Probability Converter
Morning line to probability
Frequently Asked Questions
How long is the Belmont Stakes?
The traditional Belmont Stakes is 1½ miles (12 furlongs), making it the longest of the Triple Crown races. When run at Saratoga (2024-2025 during Belmont Park renovations), it's 1¼ miles—the same as the Kentucky Derby.
What is a good Stamina Score for the Belmont?
Horses with a Stamina Score of 85+ have hit the board at a 62% rate in the Belmont. Scores of 90+ indicate elite stayers who should relish the distance. Below 70 suggests the horse may struggle to stay 12 furlongs.
Which sires produce the best Belmont horses?
Tapit, Curlin, Medaglia d'Oro, and Pioneerof the Nile have produced multiple Belmont winners and ITM finishers. These sires' progeny average winning distances of 9+ furlongs, indicating stamina genetics.
Should I bet against Triple Crown contenders?
Triple Crown contenders face two challenges: they're running their third demanding race in 5 weeks, and public money inflates their odds. Fresh horses with stamina pedigrees often offer value, as shown by spoilers like Birdstone (36-1) and Da' Tara (38-1).
What's the best post position for the Belmont?
Posts 3-5 have a combined 23.1% win rate, offering optimal positioning for the long first turn. Posts 9-12 are severe disadvantages with only 9.8% combined wins—the extra ground traveled is costly at 12 furlongs.
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