The Test of a Champion: Belmont Stakes Pedigree & Stamina Guide
Where Triple Crown dreams are forged or shattered. Master the grueling 1½-mile classic with pedigree analysis, stamina scoring, and data-driven strategies for identifying horses built to conquer America's longest classic.
13
Triple Crown Winners
1.5 mi
Classic Distance
38-1
Biggest TC Spoiler (2008)
62%
Stamina Score Hit Rate
Get Real-Time Pedigree Data with TrackWiz
AI-powered stamina analysis, sire statistics, and Belmont-specific projections
The Test of a Champion: Why Distance Matters
The Brutal Math of 1½ Miles
The Belmont Stakes at 1½ miles (12 furlongs) is a full quarter-mile longer than the Kentucky Derby and a half-mile longer than the Preakness. For 3-year-olds who've never run this far, it's uncharted territory—and that's exactly what makes it "The Test of a Champion."
Saratoga's New Challenge (2024+)
With the Belmont at Saratoga during Big Sandy renovations, the distance dropped to 1¼ miles—the same as the Derby. This changes the calculus significantly:
- Speed horses more viable at shorter distance
- Stamina less of a determining factor
- Derby form translates more directly
- Historical pedigree data less predictive
"The Derby is won by the fastest horse. The Belmont is won by the best horse."
— Racing Proverb
The Immortals: 13 Triple Crown Champions
From Sir Barton in 1919 to Justify in 2018, only 13 horses have conquered all three classics. The 37-year drought between Affirmed (1978) and American Pharoah (2015) shows just how difficult it is to pass the Belmont's ultimate test.
| Year | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Belmont Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Justify | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 1¾ lengths |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza | 5½ lengths |
| 1978 | Affirmed | Laz Barrera | Steve Cauthen | Head |
| 1977 | Seattle Slew | Billy Turner | Jean Cruguet | 4 lengths |
| 1973 | Secretariat | Lucien Laurin | Ron Turcotte | 31 lengths |
| 1948 | Citation | Ben Jones | Eddie Arcaro | 8 lengths |
| 1946 | Assault | Max Hirsch | Warren Mehrtens | 3 lengths |
| 1943 | Count Fleet | Don Cameron | Johnny Longden | 25 lengths |
| 1941 | Whirlaway | Ben Jones | Eddie Arcaro | 2½ lengths |
| 1937 | War Admiral | George Conway | Charles Kurtsinger | 3 lengths |
| 1935 | Omaha | Jim Fitzsimmons | Willie Saunders | 1½ lengths |
| 1930 | Gallant Fox | Jim Fitzsimmons | Earl Sande | 3 lengths |
| 1919 | Sir Barton | H. Guy Bedwell | Johnny Loftus | 5 lengths |
The 31-Length Legend
June 9, 1973. Secretariat entered the Belmont as a heavy favorite seeking the first Triple Crown in 25 years. What happened next transcended sport: Big Red won by an unfathomable 31 lengths, setting a track record of 2:24 flat that still stands 50+ years later. The final quarter-mile was his fastest—an impossible feat at that distance.
2:24.00
Track Record (Still Stands)
31
Lengths Winning Margin
:23.4
Final Quarter Mile
1-10
Odds (Heavy Favorite)
The Dream Crushers: Famous Belmont Spoilers
For every Triple Crown winner, there are countless horses who fell at the final hurdle. Some of racing's most heartbreaking moments—and biggest betting payoffs—have come from Triple Crown spoilers at the Belmont.
Dornoch
Spoiled: Sierra Leone/Mystik Dan
Won by ¾ length
Mo Donegal
Spoiled: Rich Strike
Won by 3 lengths
Essential Quality
Won by 1¼ lengths
Sir Winston
Won by 1 length
Tonalist
Spoiled: California Chrome
Won by Head
Union Rags
Spoiled: I'll Have Another (scratched)
Won by Neck
The Heartbreak of 2004: Smarty Jones
Philadelphia's beloved Smarty Jones entered the 2004 Belmont undefeated with massive public support. At odds of 1-5, he was the shortest favorite in decades. In the stretch, the crowd could taste history—until 36-1 longshot Birdstone surged past in the final strides. The $102.50 exacta payout remains one of the most unlikely in Belmont history.
💡 Betting Lesson:
Heavy favorites coming off the Derby and Preakness are running their third demanding race in 5 weeks. Fresh horses without that grind have a physiological advantage—especially at 12 furlongs. Use the True Odds Calculator to find fair odds on Triple Crown spoilers.
The Stamina Score: Quantifying Distance Ability
We've developed a proprietary Stamina Score that combines pedigree analysis, race history, and running style to predict 12-furlong performance. Horses scoring 85+ hit the board at a 62% rate in the Belmont.
Stamina Score Formula
SS = (Sire Distance Index × 0.35) + (Dam's Sire Index × 0.25) +
(Horse's Proven Distance × 0.25) + (Running Style Modifier × 0.15)
Component Breakdown:
- 35%Sire's average winning distance (scaled 0-100)
- 25%Dam's sire (broodmare sire) distance index
- 25%Horse's longest winning distance to date
- 15%Running style: closers +10, pressers +5, speed 0
Score Interpretation:
Calculate Stamina Scores Instantly with TrackWiz
TrackWiz's AI automatically computes Stamina Scores for every Belmont entrant, pulling real-time pedigree data, sire statistics, and running style analysis. Get projections updated as the field takes shape.
Get Belmont Stamina Projections →Key Stamina Sires for the Belmont
| Sire | Avg Win Dist | Belmont Wins | Belmont ITM | Stamina Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapit | 9.2f | 2 | 8 | 92 |
| Curlin | 9.5f | 1 | 5 | 95 |
| Medaglia d'Oro | 9.3f | 1 | 4 | 93 |
| Street Sense | 9.0f | 1 | 3 | 90 |
| Into Mischief | 8.4f | 0 | 2 | 72 |
| Gun Runner | 9.1f | 0 | 3 | 91 |
| Constitution | 8.8f | 1 | 4 | 88 |
| Quality Road | 8.6f | 0 | 2 | 82 |
| Uncle Mo | 8.7f | 0 | 3 | 85 |
| Pioneerof the Nile | 9.4f | 1 | 2 | 94 |
Belmont Post Position Analysis
At 1½ miles with a long first turn, inside posts have an advantage. The outside posts (9-12) require either early speed to secure position or extra ground traveled—neither ideal for stamina-dependent late-runners.
| Post | Wins | ITM | Win % | ITM % | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 29 | 5.6% | 20.3% | Inside saves ground |
| 2 | 7 | 27 | 4.9% | 18.9% | Clean early position |
| 3 | 12 | 35 | 8.4% | 24.5% | Optimal inside |
| 4 | 10 | 31 | 7% | 21.7% | Good tactical spot |
| 5 | 11 | 33 | 7.7% | 23.1% | Prime position |
| 6 | 9 | 28 | 6.3% | 19.6% | Versatile |
| 7 | 8 | 26 | 5.6% | 18.2% | Speed helps |
| 8 | 7 | 24 | 4.9% | 16.8% | Wide but ok |
| 9 | 5 | 20 | 3.5% | 14% | Disadvantage starts |
| 10 | 4 | 17 | 2.8% | 11.9% | Extra distance |
| 11 | 3 | 14 | 2.1% | 9.8% | Far outside |
| 12 | 2 | 10 | 1.4% | 7% | Severe disadvantage |
Prime Posts (3-5)
23.1% combined win rate. Clean break, good tactical positioning, minimal extra ground.
Acceptable Posts (1-2, 6-8)
Inside requires tactical speed; outside needs early position or closer style.
Danger Zone (9-12)
Only 9.8% combined win rate. Severe extra distance traveled on the long first turn.
The Belmont Betting Playbook
Triple Crown Spoiler Strategy
When a horse enters seeking the Triple Crown, public money floods in. Use this to find value on fresh horses with stamina pedigrees.
Step 1: Calculate True Odds
Use the True Odds Calculator to remove vig and find the spoiler's fair odds
Step 2: Find Stamina Advantage
Fresh horses with SS 85+ and posts 1-7 are prime spoiler candidates
Step 3: Structure Trifecta Keys
Use Trifecta Wheel Calculator to key spoilers on top
Standard Belmont Strategy
In non-Triple Crown years, focus purely on stamina profiles and value odds.
Focus: Stamina Score 85+
Horses with proven staying pedigrees hit board 62% at Belmont
Running Style: Closers
Deep closers excel at 12 furlongs as speed horses tire in the stretch
Value Threshold: 3-1+
Stamina horses at 3-1 or higher offer consistent +EV in exotics
Exotic Betting Structures by Budget
$25 Budget
- $2 Win on top stamina horse
- $6 Exacta box (3 horses)
- $12 Trifecta key (1 with 4 others)
- $5 saved for live betting
$50 Budget
- $5 Win on stamina longshot
- $12 Exacta box (4 horses)
- $24 Trifecta box (4 horses)
- $9 saved for live/show parlay
$100+ Budget
- $10 Dutched win pool (3 horses)
- $24 Trifecta box (4 horses)
- $48 Superfecta part-wheel
- $18 remaining for late value
Case Study: Tonalist (2014) - The Perfect Spoiler
The Setup
California Chrome entered the 2014 Belmont seeking the Triple Crown after dominant wins in the Derby and Preakness. The crowd of 100,000+ was ready to crown him.
Tonalist's Profile:
- • Sire: Tapit (Stamina Rating: 92)
- • Fresh: Skipped Kentucky Derby & Preakness
- • Distance proven: Won Peter Pan at 1⅛ miles
- • Post 11—the one concern
Stamina Score: 91
Elite Stayer designation
The Edge
Opening Line: 9-1
Fair value based on stamina analysis: 6-1. Significant overlay due to California Chrome mania distorting the market.
Result: Won by a head
Tonalist stalked the pace, then surged past a tiring California Chrome in deep stretch. The $21.20 win payout was pure value.
Exotic Payouts:
- • Exacta (Tonalist/Commissioner): $137.00
- • Trifecta: $610.00
- • Superfecta: $5,854.00
Get Your Belmont Stamina Analysis from TrackWiz
TrackWiz provides real-time Stamina Scores, pedigree analysis, and Belmont-specific projections for every entrant. Don't handicap the Test of a Champion without the best data.
Get Belmont Projections Free →Essential Belmont Betting Tools
True Odds Calculator
Find no-vig fair odds
Trifecta Wheel Calculator
Key stamina horses on top
Dutching Calculator
Spread win bets across stayers
Expected Value Calculator
Calculate +EV at current odds
Superfecta Box Calculator
Structure deep exotic wagers
Odds/Probability Converter
Morning line to probability
Frequently Asked Questions
How long is the Belmont Stakes?
The traditional Belmont Stakes is 1½ miles (12 furlongs), making it the longest of the Triple Crown races. When run at Saratoga (2024-2025 during Belmont Park renovations), it's 1¼ miles—the same as the Kentucky Derby.
What is a good Stamina Score for the Belmont?
Horses with a Stamina Score of 85+ have hit the board at a 62% rate in the Belmont. Scores of 90+ indicate elite stayers who should relish the distance. Below 70 suggests the horse may struggle to stay 12 furlongs.
Which sires produce the best Belmont horses?
Tapit, Curlin, Medaglia d'Oro, and Pioneerof the Nile have produced multiple Belmont winners and ITM finishers. These sires' progeny average winning distances of 9+ furlongs, indicating stamina genetics.
Should I bet against Triple Crown contenders?
Triple Crown contenders face two challenges: they're running their third demanding race in 5 weeks, and public money inflates their odds. Fresh horses with stamina pedigrees often offer value, as shown by spoilers like Birdstone (36-1) and Da' Tara (38-1).
What's the best post position for the Belmont?
Posts 3-5 have a combined 23.1% win rate, offering optimal positioning for the long first turn. Posts 9-12 are severe disadvantages with only 9.8% combined wins—the extra ground traveled is costly at 12 furlongs.
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