March Madness Upset Predictor

Analyze historical NCAA Tournament upset rates, identify Cinderella candidates, and find value in underdog betting.

Historical Upset Rates (1985-2024)
12 over 5 Analysis
35.3%
Upset Rate
55
Total Upsets
156
Total Games

Notable: Multiple every year - most common upset

Recent Cinderella Runs (Final Four or Better)
FAU (2023)#9 Seed
C-USAFinal Four
St. Peter's (2022)#15 Seed
MAACElite 8
UCLA (2021)#11 Seed
Pac-12Final Four
Loyola Chicago (2018)#11 Seed
MVCFinal Four
Syracuse (2016)#10 Seed
ACCFinal Four
Wichita State (2013)#9 Seed
MVCFinal Four
VCU (2011)#11 Seed
CAAFinal Four
George Mason (2006)#11 Seed
CAAFinal Four
Key Upset Indicators

Underdog Strengths

  • Senior-heavy roster (experience matters)
  • Top-50 defensive efficiency
  • Elite 3-point shooting (35%+)
  • Low turnover rate
  • Won conference tournament

Favorite Weaknesses

  • Young/freshman-heavy roster
  • Key player injury concerns
  • Poor free throw shooting
  • Lost late-season games badly
  • Reliant on one star player

March Madness Betting Strategy

  • • Target 12 seeds at +600 to +900 - historically undervalued
  • • Fade public favorites in 5/12 and 6/11 matchups
  • • Look for mid-major conference tournament winners
  • • Consider underdog moneylines over spreads in first round

Data based on NCAA Tournament results from 1985-2024. Individual matchups depend on team-specific factors beyond seed numbers.

📖Deep Dive: 12-5 Upset Formula

Use the Cinderella Score formula to predict which 12-seeds will upset 5-seeds based on guard play, 3PT shooting, and tournament DNA.

Read 12-5 Upset Formula Guide →

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

How to Use This Calculator

  1. 1
    Review Matchup Data: See historical upset rates for each seed matchup since 1985.
  2. 2
    Identify Patterns: Look for conferences and situations that produce more upsets.
  3. 3
    Study Cinderellas: Analyze past Cinderella runs to identify potential deep-run candidates.
  4. 4
    Find Value: Compare sportsbook odds to historical upset frequencies.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which upset is most likely in March Madness?

The 12 vs 5 matchup produces the most upsets relative to expectation - 12 seeds win about 35% of the time. The 8 vs 9 game is essentially a coin flip at 47-53%.

What makes a team a Cinderella candidate?

Look for: experienced rosters (seniors), strong defensive teams, good 3-point shooting, teams that won their conference tournament, and mid-majors with top-50 offenses.

How often does a double-digit seed make the Final Four?

Since 1985, 8 teams seeded 9 or higher have made the Final Four. That's about once every 5 years on average.

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