Market Efficiency Tester
Test if sports betting markets are beatable. Analyze your CLV, ROI, and statistical significance to determine if you have a real edge.
% of bets where you got better than closing
Average edge vs closing line (e.g., got -105 when closing was -110 = 2.3%)
| Market | Efficiency | Avg Hold | CLV Corr. | Beatable By |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NFL Point Spreads Most efficient market. Closing line is extremely predictive. | 95% | 4.5% | 92% | Elite sharps only |
NFL Moneylines Heavy favorite/underdog prices can have inefficiencies. | 92% | 4.8% | 89% | Strong models + timing |
NFL Totals Weather and late injury news create opportunities. | 88% | 4.5% | 85% | Weather/injury edge |
NFL Player Props Wide variance between books. Good for sharp bettors. | 72% | 6% | 68% | Projections + correlation |
NFL Game Props First TD scorer, exact scores - high edge potential. | 65% | 7% | 55% | Correlation modeling |
NBA Point Spreads Efficient but rest advantages exploitable. | 90% | 4.5% | 88% | Rest/travel modeling |
NBA Totals Pace-adjusted models can find value. | 85% | 4.5% | 82% | Pace projections |
NBA Player Props Minutes uncertainty creates opportunity. | 70% | 6.5% | 62% | Minutes projections |
MLB Moneylines Pitcher matchups create exploitable spots. | 85% | 4% | 80% | Pitching models |
MLB Run Lines Often mispriced relative to moneyline. | 80% | 4.5% | 75% | Run differential models |
MLB Totals Weather and park factors create value. | 78% | 4.5% | 72% | Park/weather models |
MLB Player Props Platoon splits often mispriced. | 65% | 7% | 55% | Pitcher/batter splits |
NHL Puck Lines Empty net goals create PL value. | 82% | 5% | 78% | Score effects modeling |
NHL Totals Goalie matchups often underpriced. | 75% | 5% | 70% | Goalie/pace models |
College Football Spreads Less sharp action = more opportunity. | 78% | 5% | 72% | Advanced stats models |
College Basketball Spreads Many games, less market attention. | 72% | 5.5% | 65% | Tempo-free stats |
Live Betting (All Sports) Slow updates = opportunity for speed. | 60% | 8% | 50% | Fast reactions + models |
Futures (Championship) High hold but early value exists. | 55% | 15% | 40% | Early season edge |
Parlays (Correlated) Books misprice correlations. | 50% | 12% | 35% | Correlation exploitation |
Sports Betting Market Efficiency: Can You Beat the Market?
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that asset prices reflect all available information. In sports betting, this means asking: do the odds accurately reflect true outcome probabilities? If markets are efficient, consistent long-term profit is impossible. But if they're not, edges exist for those who can find them.
The Three Forms of Market Efficiency
Strong Form
All information, including insider knowledge, is reflected in prices. Theoretical only - no real market achieves this.
Semi-Strong Form
All public information is priced in. NFL point spreads approach this. Beating requires superior models or information speed.
Weak Form
Only historical price data is reflected. Many niche markets (props, obscure leagues) operate here. Most beatable.
How to Test If You Have an Edge
- Closing Line Value (CLV): The best predictor of long-term success. If you consistently get better odds than the closing line, you have an edge - even if short-term results are negative.
- Statistical Significance: Use chi-square tests to determine if your results are due to skill or luck. With 200 bets at +5% ROI, there's still a 30%+ chance it's just variance.
- Sample Size: You need 1,000+ bets to reliably determine edge at -110 odds. Smaller edges require even more data.
- Market Selection: Some markets are more efficient than others. NFL spreads are near-impossible to beat; player props offer more opportunity.
Why Closing Line Value Matters Most
Research shows CLV is the single best predictor of long-term betting success. The closing line is the most efficient price because it incorporates all information right before the game.
- • If you beat closing line by 1% on average, expect ~1% long-term ROI
- • CLV beat rate of 52%+ indicates edge (at -110 average odds)
- • Track CLV even when you lose - it's a leading indicator of future success
Which Markets Are Most Beatable?
- Most Beatable: Player props, live betting, college sports, obscure leagues, same-game parlays (correlation exploitation)
- Moderately Efficient: NBA totals, MLB moneylines, NHL, tennis
- Hardest to Beat: NFL point spreads, major soccer leagues, high-limit markets
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Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits