Betting Variance Simulator
Visualize betting variance with Monte Carlo simulation. Understand expected drawdowns, risk of ruin, and the psychological challenges of sports betting through thousands of simulated scenarios.
Bankroll Settings
Your Edge
Simulation
Configure your settings and click "Run Simulation"
to visualize variance and drawdowns
Understanding Betting Variance
Variance is the natural fluctuation in results that every bettor experiences, regardless of their edge. Even profitable bettors will experience significant drawdowns – periods where their bankroll drops substantially from its peak.
Why This Matters
- • A 53% win rate at -110 is profitable long-term
- • But you WILL experience 10+ game losing streaks
- • 30%+ drawdowns are common, even with an edge
- • Most bettors quit during normal variance
Key Takeaways
- • Use small unit sizes (1-3%) to survive variance
- • Have a bankroll you can afford to lose
- • Trust the process during drawdowns
- • Track results to verify your actual edge
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
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Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits