NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Calculator
Calculate the expected value of anytime TD scorer props. Find +EV touchdown bets using breakeven probability and player projections.
Top-tier starting RB, 15+ touches
Override with your own %
% of team's RZ opportunities
How to Find +EV Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Anytime touchdown scorer props are among the most popular NFL betting markets. To find value, you need to accurately estimate a player's probability of scoring and compare it to the sportsbook's implied probability.
Key Factors for TD Probability
- Red Zone Opportunities: Players with high red zone target/carry shares score more TDs
- Goal Line Role: Some RBs are pulled for short-yardage specialists
- Game Script: Favored teams run more red zone plays
- Opponent Defense: TDs allowed per game in the red zone
- Recent Usage: Trending touches and targets
Position TD Scoring Rates
| Position | Avg TD Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| RB1 (Elite) | 50-60% | Goal line + receiving TDs |
| WR1 (Elite) | 30-40% | Red zone target share key |
| TE1 (Elite) | 25-35% | Red zone specialists do better |
| Mobile QB | 20-30% | Rushing TDs only |
How to Use This Calculator
- 1Enter TD Scorer Odds: Input the anytime TD scorer odds (e.g., +120)
- 2Select Position: Choose the player's position for baseline TD rates
- 3Add Recent Performance: Enter TDs scored in recent games for trend analysis
- 4Adjust Red Zone Share: Input estimated red zone opportunity share
- 5Review EV Analysis: See breakeven probability, edge, and recommendation
Frequently Asked Questions
What does anytime TD scorer mean?
An anytime TD scorer bet wins if the player scores a touchdown at any point during the game, whether rushing, receiving, or returning. It doesn't matter when or how - just that they score.
How do I find +EV touchdown bets?
Compare the implied probability from the odds to your estimated probability of the player scoring. If your projection is higher than the breakeven, the bet has positive expected value (+EV).
What's a good TD rate for RBs?
Elite RB1s score touchdowns in about 50-60% of games. RB2s are around 35-45%. These rates vary based on red zone usage, game script, and offensive scheme.
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