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Key Number Frequency Database

A searchable database of margin-of-victory frequencies by league. See how often games land on each number — and why 3 and 7 dominate NFL betting.

Margin Frequency Explorer

Spread type

Point spread (variable)

Key numbers

3 and 7 (primary); 6, 10, 4, 14 (secondary)

Headline stat

About 15% of games land on a 3-point margin — the single most common result.

Field goals (3) and touchdowns (7) drive the sport's key numbers. Getting off or onto 3 and 7 with a half-point (e.g. +3.5 vs +2.5) is the most valuable line move in football.

Key numbers only

NFL Football margin-of-victory frequencies
Margin	Frequency	Tier
3 points	14.9%	Key
7 points	8.7%	Key
6 points	5.6%	Semi-key
10 points	5.4%	Semi-key
4 points	4.8%	Semi-key
14 points	4.1%	Semi-key
1 point	4.0%	—
8 points	4.0%	—
13 points	3.5%	—
17 points	3.4%	—
2 points	3.4%	—
5 points	3.3%	—
11 points	3.0%	—
16 points	2.5%	—
21 points	2.4%	—
9 points	2.3%	—
12 points	2.0%	—
20 points	1.6%	—
24 points	1.5%	—
15 points	1.5%	—
18 points	1.3%	—
23 points	1.2%	—
19 points	1.0%	—
28 points	1.0%	—
25 points	0.8%	—

Why Key Numbers Matter

Not all points are worth the same in betting. Because football is scored in 3s and 7s, final margins cluster hard on those numbers — which is why a line of -3 is meaningfully different from -2.5 or -3.5. The frequency table above quantifies exactly how often each margin occurs so you can decide whether buying a half-point is worth the extra juice.

In fixed-spread sports like baseball (run line 1.5) and hockey (puck line 1.5), the relevant key number is simply 1. Roughly 28-30% of MLB games are decided by one run and 30-40% of NHL games by one goal, which is why run-line and puck-line prices swing so widely.

Frequencies are rounded approximations based on decades of regular-season results and are intended for line-shopping context, not exact probabilities. Playoff and situational splits can differ.

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

How to Use This Calculator

1
Pick a League: Choose NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, NHL, or MLB.
2
Read the Summary: Review the spread type, key numbers, and headline stat for that sport.
3
Search the Table: Filter the margin table by a specific number or view key numbers only.
4
Apply to Line Shopping: Use the frequencies to judge whether a half-point buy is worth the price.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a key number in sports betting?

A key number is a final margin of victory that occurs far more often than the numbers around it. In the NFL, 3 and 7 are the biggest key numbers because games are scored in field goals and touchdowns, so crossing them with a half-point is especially valuable.

Why are 3 and 7 the most important NFL key numbers?

About 15% of NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points and roughly 9% by exactly 7. Together, the field-goal and touchdown margins account for a huge share of outcomes, so buying on or off 3 and 7 moves your win probability more than any other half-point.

Do NBA and college basketball have key numbers?

Not really. Continuous scoring spreads basketball margins out evenly, so no single number carries the weight of the NFL's 3. Late-game fouling nudges college basketball slightly toward 1-3 point margins, but value comes from the line itself rather than chasing a number.

How should I use key-number data when betting?

Use it to price half-points. If a book offers +2.5 instead of +3 in the NFL, the frequency table shows how much that extra half-point is worth. In baseball and hockey the spread is fixed at 1.5, so the one-run and one-goal rates tell you how live the run line and puck line are.