Question 1

What is blowout risk in NBA betting?

Accepted Answer

Blowout risk measures the probability that an NBA game will become lopsided (one team winning by 15+ points). This matters for prop betting because star players get benched early in blowouts, killing OVER props. Our free blowout risk detector analyzes spreads, team records, and home court advantage to calculate this probability.

Question 2

Why should I fade props in high blowout risk games?

Accepted Answer

When a game is a blowout, coaches pull their starters in the 4th quarter to rest them and avoid injuries. A player on pace for 30 points might finish with 22 because they only played 3 quarters. This makes OVER props extremely risky in high blowout probability games.

Question 3

How do you calculate blowout probability?

Accepted Answer

We analyze multiple factors: point spread size (larger spreads indicate mismatches), team win percentage differential, home court advantage (worth ~3 points), and rest situations. Each factor is weighted and combined into a composite blowout risk score from 0-100%.

Question 4

Is the Blowout Risk Detector free?

Accepted Answer

Yes, the Blowout Risk Detector is completely free to use. We analyze live NBA game data, standings, and estimated spreads to identify high-risk games for prop betting. No sign-up or payment required.

Question 5

What does garbage time mean in NBA betting?

Accepted Answer

Garbage time refers to the final minutes of a blowout game when coaches bench their starters and play reserve players. This kills OVER props because stars stop accumulating stats. Our tool helps identify games likely to enter garbage time early.

Question 6

Which player props should I avoid in potential blowouts?

Accepted Answer

In high blowout risk games, avoid OVER props for star players on the favored team (they'll sit early if winning big) and star players on the underdog (they'll sit if the game is out of reach). Points, assists, and rebounds OVER props are most affected by reduced minutes.

Question 7

How often do NBA blowouts actually happen?

Accepted Answer

Approximately 15-20% of NBA games end with a margin of 15+ points. However, games with large spreads (10+) and significant record mismatches have blowout rates exceeding 40%. Our detector flags these high-probability situations.

Question 8

Does back-to-back scheduling affect blowout risk?

Accepted Answer

Yes, teams on back-to-backs are more fatigued and more likely to be blown out, especially against well-rested opponents. Coaches also rest stars more aggressively in blowouts when playing on consecutive nights.

Blowout Risk Detector

Why Blowout Risk Matters for Props

Starters Get Benched

Garbage Time Stats

Fade the OVER