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Kalshi Break-Even Calculator

Find the true win rate you need on any Kalshi contract after trading fees. See your all-in cost per contract and whether your probability estimate makes the trade +EV.

Buy Price (cents)

Contracts

Your Probability Estimate (%)

Optional: what you think the true chance is

Break-Even Win Rate (after fees):46.74%

All-In Cost per Contract:46.74 cents

Trading Fee (this order):$1.74

Edge Needed Over Market Price:+1.74 points

Expected Value at Your Estimate:+$3.26

Why the break-even is higher than the price

Kalshi's trading fee is added to your cost when you buy, so a 45-cent contract really costs slightly more than 45 cents. Compare your all-in break-even to your own probability estimate - if your estimate is higher, the trade is +EV. Estimate fees for any order size with the Kalshi Fees Calculator.

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

How to Use This Calculator

1
Enter Your Buy Price: Input the price in cents you're paying per Yes contract (e.g. 45)
2
Enter Contracts: Input how many contracts you're buying so fees are calculated exactly
3
Read Your True Break-Even: See the win rate you need after Kalshi fees, and how much edge the price must be wrong by

Frequently Asked Questions

What is my break-even price on Kalshi after fees?

Your true cost per contract is the price plus the trading fee (0.07 x price x (1 - price), rounded up per order). Buying at 45 cents with fees works out to roughly 46.7 cents per contract, so you need the event to happen more than 46.7% of the time to profit - not 45%.

How often do I need to be right to make money on Kalshi?

You need your true win rate to exceed your all-in cost per contract (price + fees) divided by the $1 payout. At 50 cents, fees push your break-even to about 51.75%. If you believe the event's true probability is higher than that, the trade has positive expected value.

Does selling before settlement change my break-even?

Yes. Selling early incurs a second trading fee, so a round trip costs two fees instead of one. If you plan to trade in and out rather than hold to settlement, your break-even edge roughly doubles. Holding to settlement is the most fee-efficient approach.

What edge do I need on Kalshi to beat the fees?

On mid-priced contracts (40-60 cents), Kalshi's fee is about 1.6-1.75 cents per contract, meaning you need roughly a 1.7% edge over the market price to break even. On contracts near 10 or 90 cents, the required edge drops below 0.7%.

Is buying No cheaper than buying Yes on Kalshi?

The fee formula is symmetric - buying No at 40 cents costs the same fee as buying Yes at 60 cents. Choose the side based on which price offers value relative to your estimate of the true probability, not on fee differences.