March Madness Pool Optimizer
Optimize your bracket picks for tournament pools using game theory, ownership projections, and expected value analysis.
Pool Size Strategy
Medium pool - balance chalk with 2-3 contrarian picks
Leverage = Win Rate / Public Ownership (higher is better)
| Seed | Win % | Public % | Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #14 Seed | 0.1% | 0.0% | 10.00x | underowned |
| #15 Seed | 0.1% | 0.0% | 10.00x | underowned |
| #16 Seed | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.00x | underowned |
| #13 Seed | 0.2% | 0.0% | 6.67x | underowned |
| #12 Seed | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.67x | underowned |
| #11 Seed | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.67x | underowned |
| #10 Seed | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.20x | fair |
| #1 Seed | 25.0% | 35.0% | 0.71x | fair |
- Mix 1-2 contrarian picks with chalk backbone
- Pick one upset in Sweet 16 region
- Consider 2-3 seed as champion for value
- Don't force upsets - pick them where data supports
Pro Tips for Pool Success
Ownership projections are estimates based on typical public behavior. Actual ownership varies by pool composition and current events.
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
How to Use This Calculator
- 1Enter Pool Details: Input your pool size, entry fee, and payout structure.
- 2Choose Strategy: Select contrarian, chalk, or balanced approach based on pool size.
- 3Analyze Leverage: Find champions and Final Four picks that are underowned vs their win probability.
- 4Build Bracket: Use the recommendations to construct an optimal bracket for your specific pool.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I pick upsets in my bracket?
It depends on pool size. In small pools (<25 people), chalk often wins. In large pools (500+), you need upsets to differentiate. The key is picking the RIGHT upsets, not forcing them.
How do I pick a champion for a large pool?
Look for 'leverage' - teams with higher win probability than their ownership percentage. Often 2-3 seeds offer better value than the most popular 1 seed.
What's the best bracket strategy?
Match your strategy to pool size: chalk for small pools, contrarian for large pools. Also consider if your pool has experts or casual fans - expert pools require more differentiation.
Props Optimizer
Take your sports betting analysis to the next level with Props Optimizer - tools and data to help you make more informed decisions.
Try Props Optimizer Free$ Partner Bonuses
Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits




