March Madness Pool Optimizer

Optimize your bracket picks for tournament pools using game theory, ownership projections, and expected value analysis.

Total Prize Pool
$2,000
1st Place Prize
$1,200

Pool Size Strategy

Medium pool - balance chalk with 2-3 contrarian picks

Champion Value Analysis

Leverage = Win Rate / Public Ownership (higher is better)

SeedWin %Public %LeverageStatus
#14 Seed0.1%0.0%10.00xunderowned
#15 Seed0.1%0.0%10.00xunderowned
#16 Seed0.0%0.0%10.00xunderowned
#13 Seed0.2%0.0%6.67xunderowned
#12 Seed0.4%0.1%2.67xunderowned
#11 Seed0.5%0.3%1.67xunderowned
#10 Seed0.6%0.5%1.20xfair
#1 Seed25.0%35.0%0.71xfair
Balanced Strategy Recommendations
  • Mix 1-2 contrarian picks with chalk backbone
  • Pick one upset in Sweet 16 region
  • Consider 2-3 seed as champion for value
  • Don't force upsets - pick them where data supports

Pro Tips for Pool Success

The champion is worth more than all other picks combined
Final Four picks matter more than Round 1 upsets
Consider submitting multiple entries with varied champions
"Leverage" is king - find underowned teams with real chances

Ownership projections are estimates based on typical public behavior. Actual ownership varies by pool composition and current events.

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

How to Use This Calculator

  1. 1
    Enter Pool Details: Input your pool size, entry fee, and payout structure.
  2. 2
    Choose Strategy: Select contrarian, chalk, or balanced approach based on pool size.
  3. 3
    Analyze Leverage: Find champions and Final Four picks that are underowned vs their win probability.
  4. 4
    Build Bracket: Use the recommendations to construct an optimal bracket for your specific pool.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I pick upsets in my bracket?

It depends on pool size. In small pools (<25 people), chalk often wins. In large pools (500+), you need upsets to differentiate. The key is picking the RIGHT upsets, not forcing them.

How do I pick a champion for a large pool?

Look for 'leverage' - teams with higher win probability than their ownership percentage. Often 2-3 seeds offer better value than the most popular 1 seed.

What's the best bracket strategy?

Match your strategy to pool size: chalk for small pools, contrarian for large pools. Also consider if your pool has experts or casual fans - expert pools require more differentiation.

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Responsible Gambling

Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.

Signs of problem gambling:
  • Betting more than you can afford to lose
  • Chasing losses with bigger bets
  • Lying to others about gambling habits