MLB Umpire Tendencies Calculator
Analyze home plate umpire strike zone tendencies and their impact on game totals
Umpire Selection
Umpire Impact Analysis
Runs vs League Avg
0.0
Umpire-Adj Total
8.5
Umpire Lean
NEUTRAL
0.0% historical edge to under
MLB Umpire Tendency Analysis
Home plate umpires have measurable and consistent tendencies that affect run scoring. Umpires with large strike zones suppress offense (lower totals), while tight zone umpires lead to more walks, longer at-bats, and higher scoring games.
What the Data Shows
- Large Zone Umps: More called strikes, fewer walks, quicker at-bats = UNDER tendency
- Tight Zone Umps: More balls, longer counts, more walks = OVER tendency
- Edge Threshold: Look for umps with 53%+ or sub-47% O/U rates for meaningful edges
- Sample Size: Only trust umpire data with 200+ games behind the plate
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