NBA 3-Point Variance Calculator

Analyze three-point shooting variance, regression to mean, and predict sustainable shooting rates

Team 3PT Data

Season 3PT%

League Average 3PT%

3PA Per Game

Games in Sample

Recent Performance

Recent 3PT%

Recent Games

Variance Analysis

Z-Score

+1.51

Notable

Std Error

±1.8%

Regression Weight

47%

to recent

Sustain Hot

84%

Projected True 3PT% (Regressed)

39.1%

📈 Hot streak: Expect ~1.0 fewer makes/game

Expected 3PM Per Game

At Recent Rate (42.0%)14.7 3PM

At Season Rate (36.5%)12.8 3PM

At Projected Rate (39.1%)13.7 3PM

NBA 3-Point Variance Analysis

Three-point shooting is one of the highest variance stats in basketball. Teams and players routinely go through hot and cold streaks that can swing game totals by 10+ points. This calculator helps identify unsustainable shooting variance and project regression to mean.

Betting Applications

Hot Team Overs: If a team is shooting 40%+ from three over 5 games with a season rate of 35%, expect regression - lean under.
Cold Team Unders: Teams shooting 30% recently vs 37% season rate are due for positive regression - lean over.
Z-Score Threshold: Z-scores beyond ±2 indicate statistically significant deviations likely to regress.

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer