NBA 3-Point Variance Calculator
Analyze three-point shooting variance, regression to mean, and predict sustainable shooting rates
Recent Performance
Z-Score
+1.51
Notable
Std Error
±1.8%
Regression Weight
47%
to recent
Sustain Hot
84%
Projected True 3PT% (Regressed)
39.1%
📈 Hot streak: Expect ~1.0 fewer makes/game
Expected 3PM Per Game
NBA 3-Point Variance Analysis
Three-point shooting is one of the highest variance stats in basketball. Teams and players routinely go through hot and cold streaks that can swing game totals by 10+ points. This calculator helps identify unsustainable shooting variance and project regression to mean.
Betting Applications
- Hot Team Overs: If a team is shooting 40%+ from three over 5 games with a season rate of 35%, expect regression - lean under.
- Cold Team Unders: Teams shooting 30% recently vs 37% season rate are due for positive regression - lean over.
- Z-Score Threshold: Z-scores beyond ±2 indicate statistically significant deviations likely to regress.
Props Optimizer
Take your sports betting to the next level with Props Optimizer - AI-powered tools and data to find the best props and maximize your edge.
Try Props Optimizer Free$ Partner Bonuses
Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits