Contract Year Performance Tracker
Track if players in contract years perform better than career averages. The 'motivation factor' meets sports betting.
Contract Year Effect by Position
Slight over on passing props
n = 142
Strong over on rushing attempts
n = 198
Over on targets, slight over on yards
n = 256
Slight over on receptions
n = 89
2025 Contract Year Players
| Player | Team | Pos | Age | Expected Boost | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 28 | +18% | Playing for extension |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 26 | +12% | Franchise tagged |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 27 | +15% | Prove-it deal |
| Chris Godwin | TB | WR | 29 | +8% | Final year |
| Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 34 | +5% | Extension talks |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 25 | +10% | Seeking WR1 money |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | QB | 28 | +12% | Career year push |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 26 | +8% | Extension eligible |
Key Research Findings
Running backs show the largest contract year boost (+14%)
→ Target RB over props for contract year players
Effect strongest in first half of season
→ Front-load your contract year bets
Players 27-29 show largest boost
→ Age sweet spot for motivation
Franchise tagged players underperform vs extensions
→ Avoid tagged players, target extension-seeking
Post-injury contract years show larger variance
→ Higher risk/reward proposition
Understanding the Contract Year Effect
The contract year phenomenon is one of the most debated topics in sports analytics. Do players really perform better when playing for their next contract? Our analysis of nflverse data from 2015-2024 shows a measurable but position-dependent effect.
Betting Implications
- Running Backs: Strongest effect - target overs on rushing attempts/yards
- Wide Receivers: Moderate effect - overs on targets more reliable than TDs
- Quarterbacks: Weakest effect - attempt increases don't always translate to production
- Timing: Effect is strongest in first 8 weeks of the season
This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
Props Optimizer
Take your sports betting analysis to the next level with Props Optimizer - tools and data to help you make more informed decisions.
Try Props Optimizer Free$ Partner Bonuses
Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be entertaining, not a way to make money. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses.
- Betting more than you can afford to lose
- Chasing losses with bigger bets
- Lying to others about gambling habits




