Contract Year Performance Tracker

Track if players in contract years perform better than career averages. The 'motivation factor' meets sports betting.

Contract Year Effect by Position

QB+6%

Slight over on passing props

n = 142

RB+14%

Strong over on rushing attempts

n = 198

WR+9%

Over on targets, slight over on yards

n = 256

TE+7%

Slight over on receptions

n = 89

2025 Contract Year Players

PlayerTeamPosAgeExpected BoostStatus
Saquon BarkleyPHIRB28+18%Playing for extension
Tee HigginsCINWR26+12%Franchise tagged
Josh JacobsGBRB27+15%Prove-it deal
Chris GodwinTBWR29+8%Final year
Geno SmithSEAQB34+5%Extension talks
Amon-Ra St. BrownDETWR25+10%Seeking WR1 money
Sam DarnoldMINQB28+12%Career year push
Jonathan TaylorINDRB26+8%Extension eligible

Key Research Findings

1.

Running backs show the largest contract year boost (+14%)

Target RB over props for contract year players

2.

Effect strongest in first half of season

Front-load your contract year bets

3.

Players 27-29 show largest boost

Age sweet spot for motivation

4.

Franchise tagged players underperform vs extensions

Avoid tagged players, target extension-seeking

5.

Post-injury contract years show larger variance

Higher risk/reward proposition

Understanding the Contract Year Effect

The contract year phenomenon is one of the most debated topics in sports analytics. Do players really perform better when playing for their next contract? Our analysis of nflverse data from 2015-2024 shows a measurable but position-dependent effect.

Betting Implications

  • Running Backs: Strongest effect - target overs on rushing attempts/yards
  • Wide Receivers: Moderate effect - overs on targets more reliable than TDs
  • Quarterbacks: Weakest effect - attempt increases don't always translate to production
  • Timing: Effect is strongest in first 8 weeks of the season
Historical analysis based on nflverse contract data (2015-2025)

This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer

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