NFL Drive Success Rate Calculator
Calculate expected drive outcomes, scoring probability, and projected points based on drive efficiency metrics
% of drives resulting in score
% of scoring drives reaching RZ
TD conversion rate in RZ
Scoring Drives
4.6
Red Zone Trips
2.5
Expected TDs
1.5
Expected FGs
3.1
Projected Points (FP Adjusted)
21.7
Base: 19.8 pts × 1.10 FP multiplier
Understanding NFL Drive Success Rate
Drive success rate measures how efficiently an NFL offense converts possessions into points. This calculator helps bettors project expected scoring output based on drive efficiency metrics, red zone performance, and field position advantages.
Key Metrics Explained
- Drive Success Rate: The percentage of offensive drives that result in any score (TD or FG). NFL average is around 35-40%.
- Red Zone Rate: How often scoring drives reach the red zone (inside the 20). Elite offenses get there 60%+ of scoring drives.
- TD/Red Zone: Touchdown conversion rate once inside the red zone. League average hovers around 55-60%.
- Field Position: Starting field position significantly impacts scoring probability and is adjusted via multiplier.
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