Player Prop Derivatives & Correlation Calculator
Calculate fair odds for alternate player prop lines and analyze correlation between props for SGPs. Find +EV on derivatives and same-game parlays.
Enter the main prop line and odds, then calculate fair odds for any alternate line.
Main Line (from sportsbook)
Calculate Alternate Line
Player Prop Derivatives & Correlation Calculator
Our prop derivatives calculator is the only free tool that calculates fair odds for alternate player prop lines and analyzes correlation between props for same-game parlays. This is the same analysis that premium services charge $50-100/month for.
Alternate Lines Explained
When a sportsbook offers a main line at 24.5 points (-110/-110), what should the odds be at 27.5 or 21.5? Our model uses the implied probability from the main line, estimates the player's expected output and variance, then calculates fair odds for any alternate line. This helps you find +EV on alternate props.
Common Prop Correlations
- QB Passing Yards + WR Receiving Yards: ~0.55 correlation (strong positive)
- QB Passing Yards + RB Rushing Yards: ~-0.15 correlation (slight negative)
- Points + Assists (NBA): ~0.25 correlation (moderate positive)
- Blocks + Rebounds (NBA): ~0.30 correlation (moderate positive)
Why Correlation Matters for SGPs
Sportsbooks price same-game parlays as if legs are independent, then add massive vig (often 20%+). But positively correlated props hitting together is more likely than independent probability suggests. This means the true odds are often better than what books offer - if you can identify the correlation.
📚 Deepen Your Knowledge
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This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results should be verified with your sportsbook before placing any wagers. All betting carries risk. Full Disclaimer
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